Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Gabriel A. Bernal, Daniela Zuloaga, Mabel C. Marulanda, Omar-Darío Cardona, Sebastián Henao. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2017, 8(3): 296-307. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0137-6
Citation: Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Gabriel A. Bernal, Daniela Zuloaga, Mabel C. Marulanda, Omar-Darío Cardona, Sebastián Henao. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2017, 8(3): 296-307. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0137-6

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0137-6

mainstreaming risk into planning

monitoring of hazard events and warning systems

This work was carried out within the framework of the inter-institutional agreement between the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Manizales headquarters, and the Corporación Autónoma Regional de Caldas (Corpocaldas)-the regional environmental authority-to improve information systems for risk knowledge and understanding

and to improve risk awareness in the city of Manizales, Colombia. The authors also express their gratitude to the three anonymous reviewers who contributed to improving the original version of the manuscript.

  • Available Online: 2021-04-26
  • A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response, assembling high resolution exposure databases, and the development of damage models for different types of elements. The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration. The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System, obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and probable maximum loss. For the case of pipelines, repair rates were also estimated. The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies, as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical, probabilistic, and prospective damage and loss estimations. In the case of the buildings, the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.
  • loading
  • AFA (I'Association française de I'assurance/French Insurance Association). 2015. Synthesis of climate change analysis and insurance, climatic risks:What impacts on natural disaster insurance on the 2040 horizon (Synthèse de l'étude changement climatique et assurance, Risques climatiques:quels impacts sur I'assurance contre les aléas naturels à I'horizon 2040?). Paris:AFA (in French).
    Birkmann, J., and B. Wisner. 2006. Measuring the unmeasurable:the challenge of vulnerability. UNU-EHS Source. Bonn:UNU-EHS.
    Bourguignon, D. 2014. Events and territories:Flooding cost in France-Spatial and temporal analysis of insured loss data (Évènements et territoires-Le coût des inondations en France, Analyse spatio-temporelle des dommages assures). Ph.D. thesis, University Montpellier 3, Montpellier, France (in French).
    D'Ercole, R., J.-C. Thouret, O. Dollfus, and J.-P. Asté. 1994. Vulnerabilities of societies and urbanized areas:Concepts, typology, methods (Les vulnérabilités des sociétés et des espaces urbanisés:concepts, typologie, modes d'analyse). Revue de Géographie Alpine 82(4):87-96 (in French).
    Dourlens, C. 2003. The issue of flooding:The social science prism (La question des inondations:le prisme des sciences sociales). Rapport au Ministère de I'équipement, des Transports et du Logement, Direction de la recherche et des affaires scientifiques et techniques (in French).
    Erdlenbruch, K., É. Gilbert, F. Grelot, and C. Lescoulier. 2009. A spatialized cost-benefit analysis of protection against flooding:Application of the avoided damages method to Orb lower valley (Une analyse coolyse coe c spatialisse de la protection contre des inondations. Application de la mmages method to Orb lowelle d lobasse vallée de I'Orb). Ingénieries 53:3-20 (in French).
    FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). 2014. National flood insurance program community rating system:CRS coordinator's manual. Washington, DC:FEMA.
    Gallopín, G.C. 2006. Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change 16(3):293-303.
    Gérin, S. 2011. An assessment process of Risk Prevention Plans in the context of natural disaster insurance (Une démarche évaluative des Plans de Prévention des Risques dans le contexte de I'assurance des catastrophes naturelles:contribution au changement de I'action publique). Ph.D. thesis, University Paris 7-Paris Diderot, UMR 8586 PRODIG (in French).
    Guillier, F. 2016a. Insurance and risk assessment:How to integrate prevention? In ICUR2016 Proceedings, International Conference on Urban Risks, Lisbon, 35-42, 30 June-2 July 2016.
    Guillier, F. 2016b. The PAPI public policy instrument:Developing local capacities through an integrated flood risk management strategy. In ICUR2016 Proceedings, International Conference on Urban Risks, Lisbon, 957-964, 30 June-2 July 2016.
    Guillier, F. 2017. Evaluation of vulnerability to flooding:Experimental design implemented on Action Programmes for Flood Prevention (Evaluation de la vulnérabilité aux inondations:Méthode expérimentale appliquée aux Programmes d'Actions de Prévention des Inondations). Ph.D. thesis, University of Eastern Paris, Paris (in French).
    Hegger, D.L.T., C. Green, P.P.J. Driessen, M.H. Bakker, C. Dieperink, A. Crabbé, K. Deketelaere, B. Delvaux, et al. 2013. Flood risk management in Europe:Similarities and differences between the STAR-FLOOD consortium countries. Utrecht, The Netherlands:STAR-FLOOD Consortium.
    Huang, I.B., J. Keisler, and I. Linkov. 2011. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences:Ten years of applications and trends. Science of the Total Environment 409(19):3578-3594.
    Hubert, G., and B. Ledoux. 1999. The cost of risk…:Socioeconomic impact assessment of floods (Le Coût du risque…:I'évaluation des impacts socio-économiques des inondations). Paris:Presses de I'École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées (in French).
    IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2014. Climate change 2014:Synthesis report. In Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri, and L.A. Meyer. Geneva:IPCC.
    Larrue, C., S. Bruzzone, L. Lévy, M. Gralepois, T. Schellenberger, J.B. Trémorin, M. Fournier, C. Manson, and T. Thuilier. 2016. Analysing and evaluating flood risk governance in France:From state policy to local strategies. Tours, France:French STAR-FLOOD Team.
    Ledoux, B. 2006. Flood risk management (La gestion du risque inondation). London:Éditions Tec & Doc (in French).
    MEDDE (Ministry of Environment, Sustainable Development and Energy/Ministère de I'Environnement, du Développement Durable et de I'Énergie). 2014. National strategy of flood risk management:National flood risk management public policy (Stratégie Nationale de Gestion du Risque Inondation-SNGRI:Politique Nationale de Gestion du Risque Inondation). Accessed 11 Sept 2017 (in French).
    Nussbaum, R. 2015. Involving public private partnerships as building blocks for integrated natural catastrophes country risk management-Sharing on the French national experiences of economic instruments integrated with information and knowledge management tools. IDRiM Journal 5(2):82-100.
    Reghezza, M. 2006. Thinking about metropolitan vulnerability:Facing the centennial flood risk in Paris (Réflexions autour de la vulnérabilité métropolitaine:la métropole parisienne face au risque de crue centennale). Ph.D. thesis, Université de Nanterre-Paris X, Paris (in French).
    Renard, F. 2010. The surface runoff risk in urban areas:From hazard typology to vulnerability assessment:The Grand Lyon case (Le risque pluvial en milieu urbain:de la caractérisation de I'aléa à I'évaluation de la vulnérabilité:le cas du Grand Lyon). Ph.D. thesis, University Lyon 3, France (in French).
    Saaty, T.L. 2008. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. International Journal of Services Sciences 1(1):83-98.
    Saaty, T.L., and D. Ergu. 2015. When is a decision-making method trustworthy? Criteria for evaluating multi-criteria decision-making methods. International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making 14(6):1-17.
    Steinführer, A., B. De Marchi, C. Kuhlicke, A. Scolobig, S. Tapsell, and S. Tunstall. 2009. Local communities at risk from flooding:Social vulnerability, resilience and recommendations for flood risk management in Europe. FLOODsite report T11-07-12, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung, Department Stadt-und Umweltsoziologie, Leipzig. Accessed 11 Sept 2017.
    UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2002. Living with risk:A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Geneva:UNISDR.
  • 加载中


    通讯作者: 陈斌,
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article views (1) PDF downloads(0) Cited by()
    Proportional views


    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint