Volume 13 Issue 6
Feb.  2023
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Pedro Pinto Santos, José Luís Zêzere, Susana Pereira, Jorge Rocha, Alexandre Oliveira Tavares. A Novel Approach to Measuring Spatiotemporal Changes in Social Vulnerability at the Local Level in Portugal[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(6): 842-861. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00455-w
Citation: Pedro Pinto Santos, José Luís Zêzere, Susana Pereira, Jorge Rocha, Alexandre Oliveira Tavares. A Novel Approach to Measuring Spatiotemporal Changes in Social Vulnerability at the Local Level in Portugal[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(6): 842-861. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00455-w

A Novel Approach to Measuring Spatiotemporal Changes in Social Vulnerability at the Local Level in Portugal

doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00455-w


This work was funded by FCT (Fundaç

ncia e Tecnologia / Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology), through the projects “BeSafeSlide—Landslide early warning soft technology prototype to improve community resilience and adaptation to environmental change” (PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017) and “MIT-RSC—Multi-risk interactions towards resilient and sustainable cities” (MIT-EXPL/CS/0018/2019). Jorge Rocha was financed through FCT, within the framework of the project “TRIAD—Health risk and social vulnerability to arboviral diseases in mainland Portugal” (PTDC/GES-OUT/30210/2017). This work was also partially developed within the framework of the RISKCOAST project (Ref: SOE3/P4/E0868) funded by the Interreg SUDOE Program (3rd Call for proposals). Pedro Pinto Santos was financed by FCT, within the framework of the contract CEEIND/00268/2017, and by the Research Unit UID/GEO/00295/2020.

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  • Received Date: 2022-11-09
  • Accepted Date: 2022-11-09
  • Available Online: 2023-02-09
  • Publish Date: 2022-11-28
  • Social vulnerability, as one of the risk components, partially explains the magnitude of the impacts observed after a disaster. In this study, a spatiotemporally comparable assessment of social vulnerability and its drivers was conducted in Portugal, at the civil parish level, for three census frames. The first challenging step consisted of the selection of meaningful and consistent variables over time. Data were normalized using the Adjusted Mazziotta-Pareto Index (AMPI) to obtain comparable adimensional-normalized values. A joint principal component analysis (PCA) was applied, resulting in a robust set of variables, interpretable from the point of view of their self-grouping around vulnerability drivers. A separate PCA for each census was also conducted, which proved to be useful in analyzing changes in the composition and type of drivers, although only the joint PCA allows the monitoring of spatiotemporal changes in social vulnerability scores and drivers from 1991 to 2011. A general improvement in social vulnerability was observed for Portugal. The two main drivers are the economic condition (PC1), and aging and depopulation (PC2). The remaining drivers highlighted are uprooting and internal mobility, and daily commuting. Census data proved their value in the territorial, social, and demographic characterization of the country, to support medium- and long-term disaster risk reduction measures.
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