A Cover Technique to Verify the Reliability of a Model for Calculating Fuzzy Probabilities

Chongfu Huang

doi:10.1007/s13753-011-0011-x

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2011 > 2(3): 1-10

Chongfu Huang. A Cover Technique to Verify the Reliability of a Model for Calculating Fuzzy Probabilities[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2011, 2(3): 1-10. doi: 10.1007/s13753-011-0011-x

Citation:

Chongfu Huang. A Cover Technique to Verify the Reliability of a Model for Calculating Fuzzy Probabilities[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2011, 2(3): 1-10. doi: 10.1007/s13753-011-0011-x

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A Cover Technique to Verify the Reliability of a Model for Calculating Fuzzy Probabilities

doi: 10.1007/s13753-011-0011-x

Chongfu Huang^,

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters, Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education of China, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Funds:

This project was supported by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No.2012CB955402), and the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology.

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

Many models have been suggested to calculate fuzzy probabilities in risk analysis. In general, the reliability of a model is demonstrated by practical effects or proved theoretically. In this article we suggest a new approach called the cover technique to verify the model's reliability. The technique is based on a hypothesis that a statistical result can approximately confirm a fuzzy probability as a fuzzy-set-valued probability. A cover is constructed by many biprobability distributions. The consistency degree of a cover and a fuzzy probability distribution is employed to verify the reliability of a model. We present a case that shows how to construct a distribution-cover and calculate the consistency degree of the cover and a possibility-probability distribution. A series of numerical experiments with random samples from a normal distribution verify the reliability of the interior-outer-set model.
- cover technique,
- fuzzy probability,
- histogram,
- interior-outer-set model,
- possibility-probability distribution

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References(25)

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