The MIKE Model Application to Overtopping Risk Assessment of Seawalls and Levees in Shanghai

Jun Wang; Shiyuan Xu; Mingwu Ye; Jing Huang

doi:10.1007/s13753-011-0018-3

Article Contents

Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2011 > 2(4): 32-42

Jun Wang, Shiyuan Xu, Mingwu Ye, Jing Huang. The MIKE Model Application to Overtopping Risk Assessment of Seawalls and Levees in Shanghai[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2011, 2(4): 32-42. doi: 10.1007/s13753-011-0018-3

Citation:

Jun Wang, Shiyuan Xu, Mingwu Ye, Jing Huang. The MIKE Model Application to Overtopping Risk Assessment of Seawalls and Levees in Shanghai[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2011, 2(4): 32-42. doi: 10.1007/s13753-011-0018-3

Citation:

PDF

The MIKE Model Application to Overtopping Risk Assessment of Seawalls and Levees in Shanghai

doi: 10.1007/s13753-011-0018-3

College of Resources and Environmental Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China

Funds:

This article is jointly supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and the Shanghai Youth Science and Technology Venus Program (Grants No. 09QA1401800). We wish also to extend our thanks to the anonymous reviewers who, despite their busy schedules, found the time to review this paper.

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

This article used MIKE 21 models to evaluate the overtopping risk of seawalls and levees from the combined effect of land subsidence, storm tide, and sea level rise in Shanghai. Typhoon storm tides are the primary natural hazard affecting the Shanghai area. The worst storm tide in recent history was No. 9711, which produced a high tide of 5.99 m. Projections indicate that sea level will rise by 86.6 mm, 185.6 mm, and 433.1 mm by 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively. The combined impact of these hazards threatens to flood large parts of the Shanghai area in the future. By 2030, 4.31 percent of the total length of the seawalls and levees in Shanghai will be at risk to being overtopped. By 2050, 27.55 percent of all seawalls and levees are likely to be overtopped. By 2100, overtopping will increase to 45.98 percent. The high risk of seawall and levee exposure to overtopping is closely related to the functional impact of land subsidence on the height of existing seawalls and levees. We propose specific engineering measures for Shanghai based on the results of our overtopping simulations.
- MIKE model,
- multi-hazards,
- overtopping risk,
- Shanghai

FullText(HTML)

References(22)

References

Cooper, M. J., M. D. Beevers, and M. Oppenheimer. 2008. The Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Region of New Jersey, USA. Climatic Change 90(4):475-92.

DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute). 2008. MIKE 21 Coastal Hydraulics and Oceanography, Hydrodynamic Module, Reference Manual. Hørsholm, Denmark:DHI Water and Environment.

Dixon, T. H., F. Amelung, A. Ferretti, F. Novali, F. Rocca, R. Dokka, G. Sella, S. W. Kim, S. Wdowinski, and D. Whitman. 2006. Space Geodesy:Subsidence and Flooding in New Orleans. Nature 441(7093):587-88.

Duan, Y. H., Z. H. Qin, and Y. P. Li. 1998. Influence of Sea Level Rise on Shanghai Astronomical Tide and Storm Surge and Estimation of Probable Water Level. Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 16(4):298-307.

Gong, S. L., C. Li, and S. L. Yang. 2009. The Microscopic Characteristics of Shanghai Soft Clay and Its Effect on Soil Body Deformation and Land Subsidence. Environmental Geology 56(6):1051-56.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 1995. Climate Change 1994:Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.

Le, K. T. 2000. An Analysis of the Recent Severe Storm Surge Disaster Events in China. Natural Hazards 21(2-3):215-23.

Li, Y. P., Z. H. Qin, and Y. H. Duan.1998. An Estimation and Assessment of Future Sea Level Rise in Shanghai Region. Acta Geographica Sinica 53(5):393-403 (in Chinese).

Lu Y. J. 2008. Shanghai's Storm Surge Defense Situation and Countermeasures. Shanghai Water 23(4):6-10 (in Chinese).

Mazzotti, S., A. Lambert, M. Van der Kooij, and A. Mainville. 2009. Impact of Anthropogenic Subsidence on Relative Sea-Level Rise in the Fraser River Delta. Geology 37(9):771-74.

McGranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson. 2007. The Rising Tide:Assessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Elevation Coastal Zones. Environment and Urbanization 19(1):17-37.

Mclean, R. F., and A. Tsyban. 2001. Coastal Zones and Marine Ecosystems. In Climate Change 2001:Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, edited by J. J. McCarthy. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.

Milliman, J. D., H. T. Shen, Z. S. Yang, and H. M. Robert. 1985. Transport and Deposition of River Sediment in the Changjiang Estuary and Adjacent Continental Shelf. Continental Shelf Research 4(1-2):37-45.

Qin, Z. H., and Y. P. Li. 1997. Preliminary Study on the Sea Level Changes and Its Long-Term Prediction. Acta Oceanologica Sinica 19(1):1-9.

Shi, Y., J. Zhu, Z. Xie, Z. Ji, Z. Jiang, and G. Yang. 2000. Prediction and Prevention of the Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Yangtze River Delta and Its Adjacent Areas. Science in China (Series D) 43(4):412-22.

Stanley, D. J. 1988. Subsidence in the Northeastern Nile Delta:Rapid Rates, Possible Causes, and Consequences. Science 240(4851):497-500.

SOA (State Oceanic Administration of the People's Republic of China). 2010. Bulletin of Chinese Sea Level Rise. http://www.soa.gov.cn/hyjww/hygb/A0207index_1.htm.

Wang, J., Z. Chen, D. Wang, X. Sun, and S. Xu. 2009. Evaluation of Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen Eliminating Capability of the Sediment in the Tidal Wetland of the Yangtze Estuary. Journal of Geographical Sciences (2009) 19(4):447-60.

Wu, Q., X. Zheng, H. Xu, Y. Ying, Y. Hou, X. Xie, and S. Wang. 2003. Relative Sea-Level Rising and Its Control Strategy in Coastal Regions of China in the 21st Century. Science in China (Series D) 46(1):74-83.

Ye, S. H. 1996. Movement Earth:The Research and Application of Crust Movement and Astro-Geodynamics. Changsha:Hunan Scientific & Technical Publishing (in Chinese).

Yu, F. J., and Z. H. Zhang. 2002. Implementation and Application of a Nested Numerical Storm Surge Forecast Model in the East China Sea. Acta Oceanologica Sinica 21(1):19-31.

Zuo, H., T. Z. Liu, and X. H. Lin. 1993. Economic Benefit Risk Assessment of Controlling Land Subsidence in Shanghai. Environmental Geology 21(4):208-211.

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Proportional views