Predicting Earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and Historical Earthquakes in Northeastern Japan

Jifu Liu; Yongsheng Zhou

doi:10.1007/s13753-012-0016-0

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2012 > 3(3): 155-162

Jifu Liu, Yongsheng Zhou. Predicting Earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and Historical Earthquakes in Northeastern Japan[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2012, 3(3): 155-162. doi: 10.1007/s13753-012-0016-0

Citation:

Jifu Liu, Yongsheng Zhou. Predicting Earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and Historical Earthquakes in Northeastern Japan[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2012, 3(3): 155-162. doi: 10.1007/s13753-012-0016-0

Citation:

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Predicting Earthquakes: The Mw9.0 Tohoku Earthquake and Historical Earthquakes in Northeastern Japan

doi: 10.1007/s13753-012-0016-0

Jifu Liu^{1
,
,},
Yongsheng Zhou²

1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2 State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China

Funds:

This research was supported by the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology of Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics (Grant No. LED2009A01), the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91024024), and the 12th Five-Year Science and Technology Support Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology, China (2012BAK10B03).

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

A magnitude 7.3 foreshock occurred two days before the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. The energy release of earthquakes within two days after the M7.3 earthquake is obviously different from the aftershocks of the Mw9.0 earthquake. But guided by historical earthquake experience, seismologists regarded the M7.3 earthquake as the main shock rather than a foreshock of another greater earthquake. Based on the analysis of historical earthquakes in coastal areas of northeastern Japan, the recurrence time of earthquakes is in quasi-periods of decadal or centennial scale. These quasi-periods are related to fault rupture along subduction zones located in marine environments adjacent to the coast. The probabilistic prediction for future earthquakes made by Japanese seismologists using historical earthquake data is based on a decadal scale quasi-period. It is difficult, however, to make relatively reliable predictions about the recurrence interval of rare great earthquakes based on historical earthquakes due to the very long intervals between large magnitude quakes and the limited historical and scientific records about their characteristics.
- earthquake prediction,
- foreshock,
- historical earthquake,
- Japan,
- Tohoku Earthquake

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References(20)

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