Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China

Yingzhi Lin; Xiangzheng Deng; Qin Jin

doi:10.1007/s13753-013-0007-9

Article Contents

Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2013 > 4(2): 59-67

Yingzhi Lin, Xiangzheng Deng, Qin Jin. Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2013, 4(2): 59-67. doi: 10.1007/s13753-013-0007-9

Citation:

Yingzhi Lin, Xiangzheng Deng, Qin Jin. Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2013, 4(2): 59-67. doi: 10.1007/s13753-013-0007-9

Yingzhi Lin, Xiangzheng Deng, Qin Jin. Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2013, 4(2): 59-67. doi: 10.1007/s13753-013-0007-9

Citation:

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Economic Effects of Drought on Agriculture in North China

doi: 10.1007/s13753-013-0007-9

1 School of Mathematics and Physics, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China;
2 Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
3 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Funds:

Grant No. 41171434).

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70873118

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

In the past three decades, global agriculture losses have continuously grown due to increasingly severe droughts. Compared with direct economic effects, there are great difficulties in evaluating the indirect economic effects of drought, which has severely lagged behind the urgent information needs for decision making. This study tries to solve the perplexity in the evaluation of the effects of drought on the price fluctuation of agricultural products by building a partial equilibrium model that describes the balancing process of supply and demand quantitatively. Using this model, a scenario analysis is applied to evaluate the price fluctuation of agricultural products caused by drought in North China. The results indicate that there is no major impact of drought on the market prices of eight major agricultural products. Even with the occurrence of a severe drought in North China, market prices of agricultural products will rise no more than 3.59 percent, which is less than the normal market price fluctuations of China's agricultural products. This study provides a tool for evaluating indirect economic effects of drought. The results of our case study could support decision making for China's food market regulation.
- drought,
- equilibrium model,
- indirect economic effects,
- North China,
- prices of agricultural products

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References(38)

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