Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities

Daniel Lane; Shima Beigzadeh; Richard Moll

doi:10.1007/s13753-017-0154-5

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2017 > 8(4): 374-389

Daniel Lane, Shima Beigzadeh, Richard Moll. Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2017, 8(4): 374-389. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0154-5

Citation:

Daniel Lane, Shima Beigzadeh, Richard Moll. Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2017, 8(4): 374-389. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0154-5

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Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities

doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0154-5

1 C-Change, International Community-University Research Alliance(ICURA), Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada;
2 Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada

Funds:

The authors acknowledge with thanks their involvement in the community-based University of Ottawa EnRiCH project (http://www.enrichproject.ca/), led by Dr. Tracey O'Sullivan of the Interdisciplinary Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Ottawa, and the "C-Change" International Community-University Research Alliance (ICURA) (http://www.coastalchange.ca) funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada, and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC). Particular thanks to research administrators, students, and community partners. Special thanks to EnRiCH International for stimulating the work, and to the C-Change Community Partners at the City of Charlottetown. The details of the STELLA system dynamics model are available on request to the authors.

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities. The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat. The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation strategies. The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies. The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada. The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown-facing increased frequency of severe storms, storm surges, and sea-level rise-provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment. This research is presented as part of the International Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project "Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities:Canada and the Caribbean" sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Resource Centre.
- Canada,
- Charlottetown,
- Climate change adaptation,
- Coastal community resilience,
- Coastal community vulnerability,
- System dynamics model

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References(39)

References

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