Anticipation and Response: Emergency Services in Severe Weather Situations in Germany

Thomas Kox; Catharina Lüder; Lars Gerhold

doi:10.1007/s13753-018-0163-z

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2018 > 9(1): 116-128

Thomas Kox, Catharina Lüder, Lars Gerhold. Anticipation and Response: Emergency Services in Severe Weather Situations in Germany[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2018, 9(1): 116-128. doi: 10.1007/s13753-018-0163-z

Citation:

Thomas Kox, Catharina Lüder, Lars Gerhold. Anticipation and Response: Emergency Services in Severe Weather Situations in Germany[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2018, 9(1): 116-128. doi: 10.1007/s13753-018-0163-z

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Anticipation and Response: Emergency Services in Severe Weather Situations in Germany

doi: 10.1007/s13753-018-0163-z

1 Interdisciplinary Security Research, Institute of Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany;
2 Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Optimal Use of Weather Forecasts, 12165 Berlin, Germany

Funds:

This research was carried out in the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research. This research network of universities, research institutes, and the Deutscher Wetterdienst is funded by the BMVI (Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructures). The authors would like to thank all interview partners for their time and efforts. The research design was outlined by the first and third author. The interviews were conducted by the first author, coding was handled by the first and second author. The theoretical framework and the discussion of the results were written by the first author.

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

Communicating meteorological uncertainty allows earlier provision of information on possible future events. The desired benefit is to enable the end-user to start with preparatory protective actions at an earlier time based on the end-user’s own risk assessment and decision threshold. The presented results of an interview study, conducted with 27 members of German civil protection authorities, show that developments in meteorology and weather forecasting do not necessarily fit the current practices of German emergency services. These practices are mostly carried out based on alarms and ground truth in a superficial reactive manner, rather than on anticipation based on prognoses or forecasts. Emergency managers cope with uncertainty by collecting, comparing, and blending different information about an uncertain event and its uncertain outcomes within the situation assessment to validate the information. Emergency managers struggle most with an increase of emergency calls and missions due to the impacts of severe weather. Because of the additional expenditures, the weather event makes it even harder for them to fulfill their core duties. These findings support the need for impact-based warnings.
- Emergency services,
- Forecast uncertainty,
- Germany,
- Weather warning response,
- Weather warnings

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References(61)

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