Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño

Julio Aguirre; Daniel De La Torre Ugarte; Juan Bazo; Paulo Quequezana; Mauricio Collado

doi:10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2019 > 10(4): 493-510

Julio Aguirre, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte, Juan Bazo, Paulo Quequezana, Mauricio Collado. Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2019, 10(4): 493-510. doi: 10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x

Citation:

Julio Aguirre, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte, Juan Bazo, Paulo Quequezana, Mauricio Collado. Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2019, 10(4): 493-510. doi: 10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x

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Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño

doi: 10.1007/s13753-019-00245-x

1 Department of Economics, Universidad del Pacífico, 15072 Lima, Peru;
2 Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, 2502 KC The Hague, The Netherlands;
3 Centro de Investigación de Riesgo, Resiliencia y Cambio Climático(CIRCA), Universidad Tecnológica del Perú(UTP), 15046 Lima, Peru

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

In this article, we provide an impact evaluation of an intervention in Peru regarding preparedness for El Niño impacts in Picsi District of Chiclayo Province in Peru's northwestern coastal Lambayeque region. This effort involved the provision of special kits that reduce the potential damage to homes as a consequence of rainfall and floods associated with an El Niño-Southern Oscillation event. Information was collected in 2016 when this Forecast-based Financing early action was activated by an El Niño forecast, and after a coastal El Niño actually struck in 2017. This dual database permits us to estimate the impact of the intervention on the damage level of homes by comparing those homes supported by the program with those homes not receiving pilot-program support. This comparison is achieved by using propensity score matching techniques, which identify the most comparable homes to the ones that were supported by the intervention. The main findings of the study suggest a positive impact of the program in terms of its effectiveness in mitigating the damage caused by the 2017 El Niño. These results suggest a drop in the scale of house damage (less damage) by around 63% for a home that received the modular kit treatment. When considering other specifications of the model, the decrease in the scale of house damage improves up to approximately 66%.
- Early warning,
- Early action,
- El Niño-Southern Oscillation,
- Forecast-based Financing,
- Matching propensity score,
- Perú,
- Red Cross

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References(44)

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