Reviewing the Oceanic Ni&#241;o Index (ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Ni&#241;o's Impacts

Michael H. Glantz; Ivan J. Ramirez

doi:10.1007/s13753-020-00275-w

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2020 > 11(3): 394-403

Michael H. Glantz, Ivan J. Ramirez. Reviewing the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Niño's Impacts[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2020, 11(3): 394-403. doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00275-w

Citation:

Michael H. Glantz, Ivan J. Ramirez. Reviewing the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Niño's Impacts[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2020, 11(3): 394-403. doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00275-w

Citation:

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Reviewing the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Niño's Impacts

doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00275-w

Michael H. Glantz^{1
,
,},
Ivan J. Ramirez^1,2

1 Consortium for Capacity Building/INSTAAR, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA;
2 Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Denver, CO 80204, USA

Funds:

The authors greatly appreciate the comments to various drafts of this article: Robert J. Ross, Lino Naranjo, Anthony Lucero and the various official and other reviewers of this paper. Their comments and critiques were very instructive. This study was made possible through the support provided by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, Bureau for Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance, U.S. Agency for International Development. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the U.S. Agency for International Development or NOAA.

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Niño episodes, based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific Ocean. The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months, encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Niño episode. The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5 ℃ suggests with a high probability that an El Niño could emerge, but for heightened warnings, one must wait for several months. In this article, we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7 ℃ identifies a tipping point at which the El Niño event becomes locked in, which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers. Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7 ℃ value could serve as a credible marker of El Niño's locked-in phase, which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5 ℃ El Niño onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Niño's foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.
- Advisory,
- Disasters,
- Early warning,
- El Niño,
- El Niño Southern Oscillation,
- ENSO,
- Hydrometeorological hazards,
- Oceanic Niño Index,
- ONI

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References(30)

References

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