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Volume 12 Issue 5
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Article Navigation >  International Journal of Disaster Risk Science  > 2021  >  12(5): 713-730
Yuan Gao, Peng Su, Anyu Zhang, Ran Wang, Jing’ai Wang. Dynamic Assessment of Global Maize Exposure to Extremely High Temperatures[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(5): 713-730. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00360-8
Citation: Yuan Gao, Peng Su, Anyu Zhang, Ran Wang, Jing’ai Wang. Dynamic Assessment of Global Maize Exposure to Extremely High Temperatures[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(5): 713-730. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00360-8
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Dynamic Assessment of Global Maize Exposure to Extremely High Temperatures

doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00360-8

  • 1. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;

  • 2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of the Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;

  • 3. School of Geographic Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810008, China;

  • 4. Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining, 810008, China

Funds:

We are grateful to the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future and the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University for general support to Yuan Gao for conducting this research. We thank Qi Zhang for useful discussions and constructive comments on overall research design. This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0602402).

  • Available Online: 2021-12-25
    Abstract
  • Exposure to extreme heat can severely harm crop growth and development, and it is essential to assess such exposure accurately to minimize risks to crop production. However, the actual distribution of crops and its changes have neither been examined in sufficient detail nor integrated into the assessments of exposure to ensure their accuracy. By examining the distribution of maize at a high resolution through species distribution modeling, we assessed the past and future exposure of maize to temperatures above 37°C worldwide. Such exposure is likely to be widespread and severe, mainly in the subtropics, and may even expand to the mid-latitudes to encompass some major maize-producing areas. Many areas at both high and low latitudes may become exposed for the first time in the next 20 years. By the 2050s, the total area exposed could increase by up to 185% to 308.18 million ha, of which the area exposed for over 60 days may increase nearly sevenfold. The average length of exposure may increase by 69% to 27 days, and areas optimally suited to maize planting may see the fastest increase by up to 772%. Extreme heat can threaten global maize production severely, and measures to mitigate that threat and to adapt to it are urgently needed.
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