Economic Ripple Effects of Individual Disasters and Disaster Clusters

Zhengtao Zhang; Ning Li; Ming Wang; Kai Liu; Chengfang Huang; Linmei Zhuang; Fenggui Liu

doi:10.1007/s13753-022-00451-0

Volume 13 Issue 6

Feb. 2023

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Zhengtao Zhang, Ning Li, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, Chengfang Huang, Linmei Zhuang, Fenggui Liu. Economic Ripple Effects of Individual Disasters and Disaster Clusters[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(6): 948-961. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00451-0

Citation:

Zhengtao Zhang, Ning Li, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, Chengfang Huang, Linmei Zhuang, Fenggui Liu. Economic Ripple Effects of Individual Disasters and Disaster Clusters[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(6): 948-961. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00451-0

Citation:

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Economic Ripple Effects of Individual Disasters and Disaster Clusters

doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00451-0

Zhengtao Zhang^1,2,3,4,5,
Ning Li^{5,6
,
,},
Ming Wang^{5
,
,},
Kai Liu⁵,
Chengfang Huang^1,2,3,4,
Linmei Zhuang^1,2,3,4,
Fenggui Liu⁶

1. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
4. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
5. School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
6. Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Xining, 810016, China

Funds:

the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2017YFC1502902)

This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42171074

the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2021M690425)

41907395)

the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 2021NTST28)

and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (No. 2019QZKK0906).

Received Date: 2022-08-18
Accepted Date: 2022-08-18

Available Online: 2023-02-09

Publish Date: 2022-11-25

Abstract

Abstract

Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects (EREs). However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster cluster may not be equal to the summation EREs of the individual disasters within a cluster. We constructed a global economic ripple input-output model suitable for the analysis of disaster clusters and demonstrated the extent of this difference with the example of two typical catastrophes that occurred in 2011 (the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Thailand Flood), within an interval of only 136 days. The results indicate that:(1) The EREs suffered by 11 of the 35 countries affected (30%) are "1+1>2", and "1+1<2" for 24 of the 35 countries affected (70%). This indicates that there is a significant difference between the cumulative and the summation losses. The difference is related to factors such as trade distance, economic influence of disaster-affected sectors, and trade ties; (2) The EREs are more than two times the direct loss and have an industrial dependence, mostly aggregated in key sectors with strong industrial influence and fast trade times in the industrial chain; and (3) Additional EREs due to the extension of the recovery period will be aggregated in countries with close trade ties to the disaster-affected country, further magnifying the difference.
- Disaster clusters,
- Disaster risk management,
- Economic ripple effects,
- Indirect economic losses,
- Input-output model

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