A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience

Jeffrey M. Keisler; Emily M. Wells; Igor Linkov

doi:10.1007/s13753-024-00587-1

Volume 15 Issue 5

Oct. 2024

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2024 > 15(5): 657-672

Jeffrey M. Keisler, Emily M. Wells, Igor Linkov. A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2024, 15(5): 657-672. doi: 10.1007/s13753-024-00587-1

Citation:

Jeffrey M. Keisler, Emily M. Wells, Igor Linkov. A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2024, 15(5): 657-672. doi: 10.1007/s13753-024-00587-1

Citation:

PDF

A Multicriteria Decision Analytic Approach to Systems Resilience

doi: 10.1007/s13753-024-00587-1

1. University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA, 02125, USA;
2. US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Concord, MA, 01742, USA;
3. University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA

Accepted Date: 2024-10-12

Available Online: 2024-12-07

Publish Date: 2024-11-04

Abstract

Abstract

This article develops a novel decision-oriented framework that strategically deconstructs systems resilience in a way that focuses on systems’ design, capabilities, and management. The framework helps evaluate and compare how system design choices impact system resilience. First, we propose a resilience score based on a piecewise linear approximation to a resilience curve. Using multicriteria decision analysis principles, we score system design alternatives in terms of system-specific capabilities. We estimate the relevance of these capabilities to resilience curve parameters associated with resilience phases. Finally, we interpret the derivatives of resilience with respect to the curve parameter values as the leverage of these parameters. Using multiple levels of weighted sums of the scores, we calculate the first order impact of system design choices first on a proxy for the generic resilience parameters and then on resilience, which allows situational characteristics to be incorporated in their natural terminology while mapping their impact on resilience with a traceable logic. We illustrate the approach by using existing materials to develop an example comparing engineered designs for minimizing post-wildfire flood impacts.
- Decision analysis,
- Multicriteria decision analysis,
- Resilience,
- System design

FullText(HTML)

References(60)

References

[1]	American Society of Civil Engineers. 2021. Hazard-resilient infrastructure: Analysis and design. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers.
[2]	Aruldoss, M. 2013. A survey on multi criteria decision making methods and its applications. American Journal of Information Systems 1(1): 31-43.
[3]	Ayyub, B.M. 2014. Systems resilience for multihazard environments: Definition, metrics, and valuation for decision making. Risk Analysis 34(2): 340-355.
[4]	Ayyub, B.M. 2015. Practical resilience metrics for planning, design, and decision making. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 1(3): Article 04015008.
[5]	Bonstrom, H., and R.B. Corotis. 2014. First-order reliability approach to quantify and improve building portfolio resilience. Journal of Structural Engineering 142(8): Article C4014001.
[6]	Bostick, T.P., E.B. Connelly, J.H. Lambert, and I. Linkov. 2018. Resilience science, policy and investment for civil infrastructure. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 175: 19-23.
[7]	Bruneau, M., and A.M. Reinhorn. 2018. Structural engineering dilemmas, resilient EPCOT, and other perspectives on the road to engineering resilience. In Routledge handbook of sustainable and resilient infrastructure, ed. P. Gardoni, 70-93. London: Routledge.
[8]	Burnett, J.T., and C.M. Edgeley. 2023. Factors influencing flood risk mitigation after wildfire: Insights for individual and collective action after the 2010 Schultz Fire. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 94: Article 103791.
[9]	Cegan, J.C., A.M. Filion, J.M. Keisler, and I. Linkov. 2017. Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: Literature review. Environment Systems and Decisions 37(2): 123-133.
[10]	Cinelli, M., M. Spada, W. Kim, Y. Zhang, and P. Burgherr. 2021. MCDA Index Tool: An interactive software for developing indices and rankings. Environment Systems and Decisions 41(1): 82-109.
[11]	Cutter, S.L., J.A. Ahearn, B. Amadei, P. Crawford, E.A. Eide, G.E. Galloway, M.F. Goodchild, and H. Kunreuther et al. 2013. Disaster resilience: A national imperative. Environment 55(2): 25-29.
[12]	Davis, C.A., B. Ayyub, S. McNeil, K. Kobayashi, H. Tatano, M. Onishi, Y. Takahashi, and R. Honda et al. 2022. Overview of a framework to engineer infrastructure resilience through assessment, management, and governance. In Lifelines 2022: Advancing lifeline engineering for community resilience, ed. C.A. Davis, K. Yu, and E. Taciroglu, 901-1013. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers.
[13]	Debano, L.F. 2000. The role of fire and soil heating on water repellency in wildland environments: A review. Journal of Hydrology 231-232: 195-206.
[14]	Doerr, S.H., and A.D. Thomas. 2000. The role of soil moisture in controlling water repellency: New evidence from forest soils in Portugal. Journal of Hydrology 231-232: 134-147.
[15]	Dormady, N., A. Rose, H. Rosoff, and A. Roa-Henriquez. 2019. Estimating the cost-effectiveness of resilience to disasters: Survey instrument design & refinement of primary data. In Handbook on resilience of socio-technical systems, ed. M. Ruth, and S.G. Reisemann, 227-246. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
[16]	Dormady, N., A. Rose, C.B. Morin, and A. Roa-Henriquez. 2022. The cost-effectiveness of economic resilience. International Journal of Production Economics 244: Article 108371.
[17]	Federal Emergency Management Agency. 2020. FEMA fact sheet flood after fire flood risks increase after fires. Washington, DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency.
[18]	Ferris, T.L.J. 2019. A resilience measure to guide system design and management. IEEE Systems Journal 13(4): 3708-3715.
[19]	Fox-Lent, C., M.E. Bates, and I. Linkov. 2015. A matrix approach to community resilience assessment: An illustrative case at Rockaway Peninsula. Environment Systems and Decisions 35(2): 209-218.
[20]	Ganin, A.A., E. Massaro, A. Gutfraind, N. Steen, J.M. Keisler, A. Kott, R. Mangoubi, and I. Linkov. 2016. Operational resilience: Concepts, design and analysis. Scientific Reports 6: Article 19540.
[21]	Girona-García, A., D.C.S. Vieira, J. Silva, C. Fernández, P.R. Robichaud, and J.J. Keizer. 2021. Effectiveness of post-fire soil erosion mitigation treatments: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Earth-Science Reviews 217: Article 103611.
[22]	Griffiths, P.G., C.S. Magirl, R.H. Webb, E. Pytlak, P.A. Troch, and S.W. Lyon. 2009. Spatial distribution and frequency of precipitation during an extreme event: July 2006 mesoscale convective complexes and floods in southeastern Arizona. Water Resources Research 45(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007380.
[23]	Henry, D., and J.E. Ramirez-Marquez. 2012. Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 99: 114-122.
[24]	Huang, I.B., J. Keisler, and I. Linkov. 2011. Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: Ten years of applications and trends. Science of the Total Environment 409(19): 3578-3594.
[25]	Izuakor, C., and R. White. 2016. Critical infrastructure asset identification: Policy, methodology and gap analysis. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology 485: 27-41.
[26]	Kabir, G., R. Sadiq, and S. Tesfamariam. 2014. A review of multi-criteria decision-making methods for infrastructure management. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 10(9): 1176-1210.
[27]	Kean, J.W., D.M. Staley, J.T. Lancaster, F.K. Rengers, B.J. Swanson, J.A. Coe, J.L. Hernandez, and A.J. Sigman et al. 2019. Inundation, flow dynamics, and damage in the 9 January 2018 Montecito debris-flow event, California, USA: Opportunities and challenges for post-wildfire risk assessment. Geosphere 15(4): 1140-1163.
[28]	Keeney, R.L. 2007. Developing objectives and attributes. In Advances in decision analysis, ed. W. Edwards, R.F. Miles, and D. Von Winterfeldt, 104-128. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
[29]	Kurth, M.H., S. Larkin, J.M. Keisler, and I. Linkov. 2017. Trends and applications of multi-criteria decision analysis: Use in government agencies. Environment Systems and Decisions 37(2): 134-143.
[30]	Linkov, I., and E. Moberg. 2014. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Environmental applications and case studies. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
[31]	Linkov, I., and B.D. Trump. 2019a. Resilience quantification and assessment. In The science and practice of resilience: Risk, systems and decisions, ed. I. Linkov, J. Keisler, J.H. Lambert, and J.R. Figueira, 81-101. Cham: Springer.
[32]	Linkov, I., and B.D. Trump. 2019b. The science and practice of resilience. Cham: Springer.
[33]	Linkov, I., F.K. Satterstrom, G. Kiker, C. Batchelor, T. Bridges, and E. Ferguson. 2006. From comparative risk assessment to multi-criteria decision analysis and adaptive management: Recent developments and applications. Environment International 32(8): 1072-1093.
[34]	Linkov, I., D.A. Eisenberg, K. Plourde, T.P. Seager, J. Allen, and A. Kott. 2013. Resilience metrics for cyber systems. Environment Systems and Decisions 33(4): 471-476.
[35]	Linkov, I., B.D. Trump, J. Trump, G. Pescaroli, W. Hynes, A. Mavrodieva, and A. Panda. 2022. Resilience stress testing for critical infrastructure. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 82: Article 103323.
[36]	Mabrouk, M., and H. Han. 2023. Urban resilience assessment: A multicriteria approach for identifying urban flood-exposed risky districts using multiple-criteria decision-making tools (MCDM). International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 91: Article 103684.
[37]	Malvar, M.C., F.C. Silva, S.A. Prats, D.C.S. Vieira, C.O.A. Coelho, and J.J. Keizer. 2017. Short-term effects of post-fire salvage logging on runoff and soil erosion. Forest Ecology and Management 400: 555-567.
[38]	Marsh, K., E. Zaiser, P. Orfanos, S. Salverda, T. Wilcox, S. Sun, and S. Dixit. 2017. Evaluation of COPD treatments: A multicriteria decision analysis of aclidinium and tiotropium in the United States. Value in Health 20(1): 132-140.
[39]	Martins, M.A.S., F.G.A. Verheijen, M.C. Malvar, D. Serpa, O. González-Pelayo, and J.J. Keizer. 2020. Do wildfire and slope aspect affect soil water repellency in eucalypt plantations?—A two-year high resolution temporal dataset. CATENA 189: Article 104471.
[40]	New Mexico State Forestry. 2015. Post‐fire treatments: A primer for New Mexico communities. https://afterwildfirenm.org/post-fire-treatments/post-fire-treatments-pdf/copy_of_post-fire-treatments-pdf. Accessed 12 Oct 2024.
[41]	Patel, D.A., V.H. Lad, K.A. Chauhan, and K.A. Patel. 2020. Development of bridge resilience index using multicriteria decision-making techniques. Journal of Bridge Engineering 25(10): Article 04020090.
[42]	Pawar, B., M. Huffman, F. Khan, and Q. Wang. 2022. Resilience assessment framework for fast response process systems. Process Safety and Environmental Protection 163: 82-93.
[43]	Poulin, C., and M.B. Kane. 2021. Infrastructure resilience curves: Performance measures and summary metrics. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 216: Article 107926.
[44]	Prasetya, A.R.A., T.A. Rachmawati, and F. Usman. 2023. A multicriteria approach to assessing landslide community resilience. Case study: Bumiaji sub-district. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1186(1): Article 012003.
[45]	Reutlinger, A., D. Hangleiter, and S. Hartmann. 2018. Understanding (with) toy models. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 69(4): 1069-1099.
[46]	Rinaldi, S.M., J.P. Peerenboom, and T.K. Kelly. 2001. Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems Magazine 21(6): 11-25.
[47]	Robichaud, P.R. 2000. Fire effects on infiltration rates after prescribed fire in northern Rocky Mountain forests, USA. Journal of Hydrology 231-232: 220-229.
[48]	Rocco, C.M., E. Hernández-Perdomo, and K. Barker. 2015. Multicriteria decision analysis approach for stochastic ranking with application to network resilience. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 2(1): Article 04015018.
[49]	Roege, P.E., Z.A. Collier, J. Mancillas, J.A. McDonagh, and I. Linkov. 2014. Metrics for energy resilience. Energy Policy 72: 249-256.
[50]	Rose, A. 2017. Benefit-cost analysis of economic resilience actions. In Oxford research encyclopedia of natural hazard science, ed. S. Cutter. New York: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.69. Accessed 12 Oct 2024.
[51]	Roszkowska, E., and T. Wachowicz. 2016. Analyzing the applicability of selected MCDA methods for determining the reliable scoring systems. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305209304_Analyzing_the_Applicability_of_Selected_MCDA_Methods_for_Determining_the_Reliable_Scoring_Systems. Accessed 12 Oct 2024.
[52]	Sharma, N., A. Tabandeh, and P. Gardoni. 2018. Resilience analysis: A mathematical formulation to model resilience of engineering systems. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure 3(2): 49-67.
[53]	Staley, D.M., J.W. Kean, and F.K. Rengers. 2020. The recurrence interval of post-fire debris-flow generating rainfall in the southwestern United States. Geomorphology 370: Article 107392.
[54]	Steele, K., Y. Carmel, J. Cross, and C. Wilcox. 2009. Uses and misuses of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in environmental decision making. Risk Analysis 29(1): 26-33.
[55]	The White House. 2024. National security memorandum on critical infrastructure security and resilience NSM-22. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/04/30/national-security-memorandum-on-critical-infrastructure-security-and-resilience/. Accessed 12 Oct 2024.
[56]	Wang, C., B.M. Ayyub, and A. Ahmed. 2022. Time-dependent reliability and resilience of aging structures exposed to multiple hazards in a changing environment. Resilient Cities and Structures 1(3): 40-51.
[57]	Yang, M., H. Sun, and S. Geng. 2023. On the quantitative resilience assessment of complex engineered systems. Process Safety and Environmental Protection 174: 941-950.
[58]	Yilmaz, O.S., D.E. Akyuz, M. Aksel, M. Dikici, M.A. Akgul, O. Yagci, F.B. Sanli, and H. Aksoy. 2023. Evaluation of pre- and post-fire flood risk by analytical hierarchy process method: A case study for the 2021 wildfires in Bodrum, Turkey. Landscape and Ecological Engineering 19(2): 271-288.
[59]	Zarei, E., B. Ramavandi, A.H. Darabi, and M. Omidvar. 2021. A framework for resilience assessment in process systems using a fuzzy hybrid MCDM model. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries 69: Article 104375.
[60]	Zhang, Z., P.R. Srivastava, P. Eachempati, and Y. Yu. 2023. An intelligent framework for analyzing supply chain resilience of firms in China: A hybrid multicriteria approach. International Journal of Logistics Management 34(2): 443-472.