International Journal of Disaster Risk Science

2017 Vol. 8, No. 3

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EDITORIAL
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EDITORIAL

Risk Governance, Assessment, and Economic Impacts

Paula Teves-Costa, José Manuel Mendes

2017, 8(3): 235-236. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0144-7

Abstract(59) PDF

Abstract:

ARTICLES

Seismic Performance Assessment of a Conventional Multi-storey Building

Giuseppe Marcantonio Del Gobbo, Martin S. Williams, Anthony Blakeborough

2017, 8(3): 237-245. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0134-9

Abstract(91) PDF

Abstract:
Recent earthquakes have revealed that conventional seismic design philosophy allows for large levels of nonstructural damage. Nonstructural earthquake damage results in extensive repair costs and lengthy functional disruptions, as nonstructural systems comprise the majority of building investment and are essential to building operations. A better understanding of the expected overall seismic performance of code-compliant buildings is needed. This study investigates the seismic performance of a conventional building. A 16-storey steel office building was designed using a modern seismic structural code (Eurocode 8). This study is the first to assess in detail the substantial earthquake repair costs expected in a modern Eurocode concentric braced frame structure, considering nonstructural systems with the FEMA P-58 procedure. The breakdown of total repair costs by engineering demand parameter and by fragility group is novel. The seismic performance assessment indicated that substantial earthquake repair costs are expected. Limitations of the Eurocode nonstructural damage methodology were revealed in a novel manner using FEMA P-58, as the prescribed drift limits did not minimize nonstructural repair costs. These findings demonstrate the need for design procedures that improve nonstructural seismic performance. The study results provide a benchmark on which to evaluate retrofit alternatives for existing buildings and design options for new structures.

Children in Disaster Risk Reduction in Portugal: Policies, Education, and (Non) Participation

Ana Delicado, Jussara Rowland, Susana Fonseca, Ana Nunes de Almeida, Luísa Schmidt, Ana Sofia Ribeiro

2017, 8(3): 246-257. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0138-5

Abstract(73) PDF

Abstract:
International agencies and scientific research have been calling for the inclusion of children in disaster preparedness and risk reduction, to hear their voices in order to address their specific needs and vulnerabilities and harness their capabilities in terms of building community resilience. This article assesses the roles ascribed to children in policy and education for disaster risk reduction in Portugal. The approach is based on a scoping methodology that encompasses document analysis and interviews with national and local stakeholders and policymakers in the disaster risk reduction field. The research is carried out within the scope of a European funded project, CUIDAR Cultures of Disaster Resilience among Children and Young People. More specifically, the article provides an overview of the discourses on the roles ascribed to children in urban disaster risk reduction (DRR). The authors maintain that although children are often taken as a target group in urban disaster prevention and management, they are seldom considered in terms of active participation in disaster risk reduction programs in the Portuguese context. Nevertheless, our analysis shows that there is a growing awareness of the relevance of active participation by children in order to create successful DRR.

Holistic Disaster Risk Evaluation for the Urban Risk Management Plan of Manizales, Colombia

Martha Liliana Carreño, Omar-Darío Cardona, Alex H. Barbat, Dora Catalina Suarez, María del Pilar Perez, Lizardo Narvaez

2017, 8(3): 258-269. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0136-7

Abstract(48) PDF

Abstract:
Disaster risk depends on both the physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects of a society. For a better risk understanding, a holistic or integrated perspective was considered when risk was assessed for the city of Manizales, Colombia. This assessment accounts not only for the expected physical damage and loss, but also for the socioeconomic vulnerability factors that favor secondorder effects in a disaster. This comprehensive approach allows the identification of different aspects related to physical vulnerability, social fragility, and lack of resilience that can be improved, thus enhancing integrated disaster risk management actions. The outcomes of this comprehensive assessment are currently being used as input to update the disaster risk management plan of Manizales.

Integration of Probabilistic and Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Within Urban Development Planning and Emergency Preparedness and Response: Application to Manizales, Colombia

Gabriel A. Bernal, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Daniela Zuloaga, Julián Tristancho, Diana González, Omar-Darío Cardona

2017, 8(3): 270-283. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0135-8

Abstract(83) PDF

Abstract:
The details of a multi-hazard and probabilistic risk assessment, developed for urban planning and emergency response activities in Manizales, Colombia, are presented in this article. This risk assessment effort was developed under the framework of an integral disaster risk management project whose goal was to connect risk reduction activities by using open access and state-of-theart risk models. A probabilistic approach was used for the analysis of seismic, landslide, and volcanic hazards to obtain stochastic event sets suitable for probabilistic loss estimation and to generate risk results in different metrics after aggregating in a rigorous way the losses associated to the different hazards. Detailed and high resolution exposure databases were used for the building stock and infrastructure of the city together with a set of vulnerability functions for each of the perils considered. The urban and territorial ordering plan of the city was updated for socioeconomic development and land use using the hazard and risk inputs and determinants, which cover not only the current urban area but also those adjacent areas where the expansion of Manizales is expected to occur. The emergency response capabilities of the city were improved by taking into account risk scenarios and after updating an automatic and real-time post-earthquake damage assessment.

French Insurance and Flood Risk: Assessing the Impact of Prevention Through the Rating of Action Programs for Flood Prevention

Flora Guillier

2017, 8(3): 284-295. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0140-y

Abstract(64) PDF

Abstract:
French insurance is part of a public-private partnership with the French State to compensate flood-related damages, and there is growing concern among insurers about damaging climatic events. To promote preventive actions as well as to take them into account in flood risk assessment, insurers have recently expressed the need to develop a rating system of preventive actions. This study identified Action Programs for Flood Prevention (Programme d'Action pour la Prévention des Inondations-PAPI) as the key French public policy instrument:they provide an overview of the diversity of actions that are conducted locally at the relevant risk basin scale. A database of all intended actions in the 145 launched PAPIs was constructed and the actions were coded (88 codes). The analysis consisted of two steps:(1) We conducted an expert valuation using the Analytic Network Process and the Analytic Hierarchy Process, aiming at creating an experimental national rating system. The results show the importance of implementing an integrated strategy that particularly emphasizes land use planning and urban planning. This appears even sounder as individual actions show relatively limited effectiveness. (2) The ratings of actions were applied to each PAPI according to their implemented actions. The resulting scores for individual PAPIs, as local risk coping capacity indicators, show great variance ranging from 8 to 324 points. This confirms the need to take prevention into account in flood risk assessment.

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Gabriel A. Bernal, Daniela Zuloaga, Mabel C. Marulanda, Omar-Darío Cardona, Sebastián Henao

2017, 8(3): 296-307. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0137-6

Abstract(56) PDF

Abstract:
A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response, assembling high resolution exposure databases, and the development of damage models for different types of elements. The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration. The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System, obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and probable maximum loss. For the case of pipelines, repair rates were also estimated. The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies, as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical, probabilistic, and prospective damage and loss estimations. In the case of the buildings, the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

3D City Models as a Visual Support Tool for the Analysis of Buildings Seismic Vulnerability: The Case of Lisbon

Paula Redweik, Paula Teves-Costa, Inês Vilas-Boas, Teresa Santos

2017, 8(3): 308-325. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0141-x

Abstract(99) PDF

Abstract:
3D city models associate a database of a city to a rigorous geospatial representation that is close to the visible reality by combining appearance, geometry, and semantics. As such, these models may include tools that convey attribute analysis, not only at the statistical level but also in terms of visual appearance of the objects, thus allowing the generation of new knowledge about a phenomenon or its effects. Lisbon is a city with a moderate level of seismic risk, and has been hit in the past by strong earthquakes. Several seismic vulnerability studies of buildings have been carried out in Lisbon. These studies generate different scenarios that consider the magnitude and source location of potential earthquakes. The results of these studies were presented as maps obtained from crossing information contained in 2D layers and presented in a GIS environment. In the present study a seismic vulnerability assessment of Lisbon's buildings held in 2D is extended to the third dimension, which refines the resolution and the set of parameters and explores the gains of spatial analysis in 3D representations. The numerous parameters that contribute to assess seismic vulnerability of buildings may be analyzed individually or simultaneously as well as in multiple seismic scenarios. Although covering all residential buildings in Lisbon, the application of the 3D city model is demonstrated with more detail in three pilot areas.

A Damage Scenario for the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes and Estimation of the Economic Losses to Residential Buildings

Fabrizio Meroni, Thea Squarcina, Vera Pessina, Mario Locati, Marco Modica, Roberto Zoboli

2017, 8(3): 326-341. doi: 10.1007/s13753-017-0142-9

Abstract(106) PDF

Abstract:
In May 2012 a seismic sequence occurred in Northern Italy that was characterized by two main shocks with a magnitude range between 5.5 and 6. These shocks represent a good case study by which to quantify the monetary losses caused by a moderate earthquake in a densely populated and economically well-developed area. The loss estimation accounts for damage to residential buildings, and considers the full effect of all the seismic aftershock events that lasted for nearly a month. The building damage estimation is based on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) definitions, which depict the effects of an earthquake on built-up areas in terms of observed intensities. Input data sources are the residential building census provided by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica-the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)- and the official market value of real estate assets, obtained from the Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare-the Real Estate Market Observatory (OMI). These data make it possible to quantify the economic losses due to earthquakes, an economic indicator updated yearly. The proposed multidisciplinary method takes advantage of seismic, engineering, and economic data sets, and is able to provide a reasonable after the event losses scenario. Data are not gathered for each single building and the intensity values are not a simple hazard indicator, but, notwithstanding its coarseness, this method ensures both robust and reproducible results. As the local property value is available throughout the Italian territory, the present loss assessment can be effortlessly repeated for any area, and may be quickly reproduced in case of future events, or used for predictive economic estimations.