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2023, Volume 14,  Issue 5

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Business Continuity Management, Operational Resilience, and Organizational Resilience: Commonalities, Distinctions, and Synthesis
S. E. Galaitsi, Elizaveta Pinigina, Jeffrey M. Keisler, Gianluca Pescaroli, Jesse M. Keenan, Igor Linkov
2023, 14(5): 713-721. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00494-x
The concepts of business continuity management, operational resilience, and organizational resilience each refer to actions that businesses and organizations can take in anticipating and responding to disruptions. However, the existing definitions and usages are difficult to differentiate due to overlapping objectives, implementation processes, and outcomes. This article examines definitions and approaches for these three concepts and suggest a framework to operationalize methods and tools relevant to each. These definitions emphasize three dyads: risk versus resilience; organizational processes versus assets; and normal operating conditions versus crisis conditions. Using these dyads to differentiate the concepts of business continuity management, operational resilience, and organizational resilience can support planners in clarifying objectives and identifying which approach will be most beneficial as businesses or organizations plan for and encounter disruptions. This article evaluates these concepts by examining illustrative examples of disruptions and responses.
A Systematic Review of Forensic Approaches to Disasters: Gaps and Challenges
Adriano Mota Ferreira, Victor Marchezini, Tatiana Sussel Gonçalves Mendes, Miguel Angel Trejo-Rangel, Allan Yu Iwama
2023, 14(5): 722-735. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00515-9
Disaster forensic approaches aim to identify the causes of disasters to support disaster risk management. However, few studies have conducted a systematic literature review of scientific articles that labeled themselves as a forensic approach to disasters. This article provides a qualitative analysis of these forensic studies, focusing on five main issues: (1) the methodologies applied; (2) the forensic approaches used in the disaster risk management phases; (3) the hazards addressed; (4) if the methodologies involve social participation, and using what types of participation; and (5) if there are references to urban planning in the scientific studies analyzed. Our results showed a predominance of the Forensic Investigations of Disasters (FORIN) and Post-Event Review Capability (PERC) methodologies used in isolation or combination. There is a need for methodologies that engage people in participatory FORIN, fostering the co-production of knowledge and action research approaches.
A Comparative Analysis of Performance-Based Resilience Metrics via a Quantitative-Qualitative Combined Approach: Are We Measuring the Same Thing?
Junqing Tang, Song Han, Jing Wang, Baojie He, Jinhan Peng
2023, 14(5): 736-750. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00519-5
Since the proposal of the pioneering “resilience triangle” paradigm, various time-series performance-based metrics have been devised for resilience quantification. The numerous choices diversify the toolbox for measuring this compound system concept; however, this multiplicity causes intractable questions for applications, including “Do these metrics measure the same resilience?” and “Which one to pick under what circumstance?” In this study, we attempted to address these two fundamental issues using a comprehensive comparative investigation. Through a quantitative-qualitative combined approach, 12 popular performance-based resilience metrics are compared using empirical data from China’s aviation system under the disturbance of COVID-19. Quantitative results indicate that only 12 of the 66 metric pairs are strongly positively correlated and with no significant differences in quantification outcomes; qualitative results indicate that the majority of the metrics are based on different definition interpretations, basic components, and expression forms, and thus essentially measure different resilience. The advantages and disadvantages of each metric are comparatively discussed, and a “how to choose” guideline for metric users is proposed. This study is an introspective investigation of resilience quantification studies, aiming to offer a new perspective to scrutinize those benchmarking metrics.
Assessing Global Landslide Casualty Risk Under Moderate Climate Change Based on Multiple GCM Projections
Xia Wang, Ying Wang, Qigen Lin, Xudong Yang
2023, 14(5): 751-767. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00514-w
Extreme precipitation-induced landslide events are projected to increase under climate change, which poses a serious threat to human lives and property. In this study, a global-scale landslide risk assessment model was established using global landslide data, by considering landslide hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The global climate model data were then employed to drive the established global landslide risk model to explore the spatial and temporal variations in future landslide risk across the globe as a result of extreme precipitation changes. The results show that compared to the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000, the average annual frequency of landslides triggered by extreme precipitation is projected to increase by 7% and 10%, respectively, in the future 30-year periods of 2031–2060 and 2066–2095. The global average annual casualty risk of landslides is projected to increase from about 3240 to 7670 and 8380, respectively (with growth rates of 140% and 160%), during the 2031–2060 and 2066–2095 periods under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The top 10 countries with the highest casualty risk of landslides are China, Afghanistan, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Rwanda, Turkey, Nepal, Guatemala, and Brazil, 60% of which are located in Asia. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase under climate change, which will lead to an increase in casualties from landslides in mountainous areas globally, and this risk should be taken seriously. The present study was an attempt to investigate and quantify the impact of global landslide casualty risk under climate change, which still has uncertainty in terms of outcomes, and there remains a need for further understanding in the future of the propagation of uncertainty between the factors that affect the risk.
Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Assessment and Mapping at the Microscale Based on the Catastrophe Progression Method
Deniz Gerçek, İsmail Talih Güven
2023, 14(5): 768-781. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00512-y
Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake. Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide. Therefore, it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales. In this study, a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed. With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space, buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis. The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey, with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity. The index was represented by the building vulnerability, socioeconomic vulnerability, and vulnerability of the built environment. To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from, an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed. Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped, a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability, and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk. With its objectivity and straightforward implementation, the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.
An Index-Based Approach to Assess Social Vulnerability for Hamburg, Germany
Malte von Szombathely, Franziska S. Hanf, Janka Bareis, Linda Meier, Jürgen Oßenbrügge, Thomas Pohl
2023, 14(5): 782-794. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00517-7
In this study, we set out to develop a new social vulnerability index (SVI). In doing so, we suggest some conceptual improvements that can be made to existing methodical approaches to assessing social vulnerability. To make the entanglement of socio-spatial inequalities visible, we are conducting a small-scale study on heterogeneous urban development in the city of Hamburg, Germany. This kind of high-resolution analysis was not previously available, but is increasingly requested by political decision makers. We can thus show hot spots of social vulnerability (SV) in Hamburg, considering the effects of social welfare, education, and age. In doing so, we defined SV as a contextual concept that follows the recent shift in discourse in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) concepts of risk and vulnerability. Our SVI consists of two subcomponents: sensitivity and coping capacity. Populated areas of Hamburg were identified using satellite information and merged with the social data units of the city. Areas with high SVI are distributed over the entire city, notably in the district of Harburg and the Reiherstieg quarter in Wilhelmsburg near the Elbe, as well as in the densely populated inner city areas of Eimsbüttel and St. Pauli. As a map at a detailed scale, our SVI can be a useful tool to identify areas where the population is most vulnerable to climate-related hazards. We conclude that an enhanced understanding of urban social vulnerability is a prerequisite for urban risk management and urban resilience planning.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project Considering the Effects of Flood Risk Reduction and Resettlement
Peng Zeng, Weihua Fang, Haixia Zhang, Zhongmin Liang
2023, 14(5): 795-812. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00520-y
Evaluation of the economic costs and benefits of flood disaster risk management projects is crucial. However, current cost-benefit analyses (CBA) often lack reliable estimates of the expected loss reduction from flood control measures and ignore quantitative assessments of resettlement. To address these limitations, this study incorporated a probabilistic risk analysis method and quantitative resettlement benefits assessment into the CBA framework, using the Wuxikou Integrated Flood Management Project (WIFMP) in Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. The direct economic benefits of flood control were estimated by integrating hydrological statistics, numerical flood inundation simulation, and quantitative damage analysis with exposure and vulnerability data. Furthermore, the resettlement benefits were quantified by measuring the annual income growth of migrants based on assumptions about household employment. Our analysis shows that the total WIFMP investment is RMB 3546.1 million yuan (USD 1 = RMB 6.976 yuan), including loan principal and interest of 244.4 million yuan, and operations and maintenance of 605.5 million yuan at 2020 prices. Annual project benefits are estimated at 351.3 million yuan in flood risk reduction, 155.7–191.9 million yuan from increased resettlement income, and 42.7 million yuan in power and water revenues. Considering the costs and benefits across the entire project lifecycle, the internal rate of return ranges from 13.7 to 14.2%, and the net present value ranges from 31.8 to 352.6 billion yuan. Through improved benefit estimation methodology, this research enables a more reliable and holistic evaluation of costs and benefits for flood risk management projects. It provides insights for policymakers and practitioners involved in similar projects, contributing to more informed decision making and better allocation of resources in flood disaster risk management.
Wind and Water: How Extreme Weather Conditions Impact Residential Real Estate in Developing Countries
Nekeisha Spencer
2023, 14(5): 813-821. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00518-6
The damaging effects of extreme weather is concerning for many countries across the globe. Though the impact of these events on the housing market has been studied extensively, one aspect that remains unexplored is the value of mortgages. Further, there is no clarity on the impact of the specific types of homes. This study analyzed mortgages and apartment values and included residential land sale prices over 16 years for different localities across Jamaica. The analysis revealed that mortgages are adversely affected by excess rainfall while apartment sale prices are reduced by hurricanes but increased by excess rain. However, residential land prices remain unaffected by both events. The results point to the importance of climate adaptation for the local real estate market and property investment.
Quantifying Multi-hazards and Impacts Over Different Growth Periods of Maize: A Study Based on Index Construction
Dan Chen, Ying Guo, Rui Wang, Yunmeng Zhao, Kaiwei Li, Jiquan Zhang, Xingpeng Liu, Zhijun Tong, Chunli Zhao
2023, 14(5): 822-839. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00516-8
Owing to the complexity and variability of global climate, the study of extreme events to ensure food security is particularly critical. The standardized precipitation requirement index (SPRI) and chilling injury index (ICi) were introduced using data from agrometeorological stations on the Songliao Plain between 1981 and 2020 to identify the spatial and temporal variability of drought, waterlogging, and low-temperature cold damage during various maize growth periods. Compound drought and low-temperature cold damage events (CDLEs) and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage events (CWLEs) were then identified. To measure the intensity of compound events, the compound drought and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CDLMI), and compound waterlogging and low-temperature cold damage magnitude index (CWLMI) were constructed by fitting marginal distributions. Finally, the effects of extreme events of various intensities on maize output were examined. The findings demonstrate that: (1) There were significant differences in the temporal trends of the SPRI and ICi during different maize growth periods. Drought predominated in the middle growth period (MP), waterlogging predominated in the early growth period (EP) and late growth period (LP), and both drought and waterlogging tended to increase in intensity and frequency. The frequency of low-temperature cold damage showed a decreasing trend in all periods. (2) The CDLMI and CWLMI can effectively determine the intensity of CDLEs and CWLEs in the study area; these CDLEs and CWLEs had higher intensity and frequency in the late growth period. (3) Compared to single events, maize relative meteorological yield had a more significant negative correlation with the CDLMI and CWLMI.
Deficiency of Healthcare Accessibility of Elderly People Exposed to Future Extreme Coastal Floods: A Case Study of Shanghai, China
Xinmeng Shan, Paolo Scussolini, Jun Wang, Mengya Li, Jiahong Wen, Lei Wang
2023, 14(5): 840-857. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00513-x
Socioeconomic development, subsidence, and climate change have led to high flood risks in coastal cities, making the vulnerable, especially elderly people, more prone to floods. However, we mostly do not know how the accessibility of life-saving public resources for the elderly population will change under future scenarios. Using Shanghai as a case, this study introduced a new analytical framework to fill this gap. We integrated for the first time models of coastal flooding, local population growth, and medical resource supply-demand estimation. The results show that under an extreme scenario of coastal flooding in the year 2050, in the absence of adaptation, half of the elderly population may be exposed to floods, the supply of medical resources will be seriously insufficient compared to the demand, and the accessibility of emergency medical services will be impaired by flooding. Our methodology can be applied to gain insights for other vulnerable coastal cities, to assist robust decision making about emergency responses to flood risks for elderly populations in an uncertain future.
From Planning to Execution: Delving into the Crucial Role and Challenges of HEPPUs in Hospital Emergency Management
Ashjan Alharazi, Abdulellah Al Thobaity
2023, 14(5): 858-867. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00522-w
In 2018, the Emergency, Disasters and Ambulatory Transportation General Department at the Ministry of Health in Saudi Arabia established hospital emergency planning and preparation units (HEPPUs) to improve hospitals’ ability to respond to disasters. This study aimed to gain an in-depth understanding of the functioning of HEPPUs within hospitals in the western region of Saudi Arabia. Qualitative research methodology and semistructured interviews with emergency managers were employed. Four key themes emerged from the data: establishment and evolution, roles and responsibilities, communication and coordination, and challenges and limitations. The findings emphasize the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, effective communication, and responses to challenges in enhancing healthcare resilience and disaster management. This study contributes insights and offers practical recommendations for improving the preparedness and performance of HEPPUs within Saudi Arabian hospitals.
Transnational Dialogues on Interdisciplinary Approaches for Advancing People-Centered Warning Systems
Victor Marchezini
2023, 14(5): 868-872. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00511-z
The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the World Meteorological Organization launched in 2022 the executive plan of the world program “Early Warning Systems for All” to be implemented from 2023 to 2027. This program champions an investment of USD 3.1 billion into the four pillars of warning systems and calls for multi-hazard and people-centered warning systems (PCWS). However, there is a scientific gap concerning interdisciplinary approaches to promoting them. Motivated by the call for action of “Early Warning Systems for All” and warning research gaps on the lack of interdisciplinarity, a workshop series “Interdisciplinary Approaches for Advancing People-Centered Warning Systems” was held in early 2023. This short article shares the preliminary findings and recommendations of this research, which involved a transnational virtual dialogue between one scientific organization in Brazil and one from the United States. The findings and recommendations discussed in three virtual sessions and one collective working paper were centered on three aspects: promoting interdisciplinary integration in research; the need to discuss the characteristics of a PCWS; and promoting problem- and solution-based programs with people to integrate them at all phases of the warning system.