International Journal of Disaster Risk Science

2022 Vol. 13, No. 3

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Measuring Resilience in the Assumed City

Wesley Cheek, Ksenia Chmutina

2022, 13(3): 317-329. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00410-9

Abstract(708) PDF

Abstract:
The malleable nature of both the idea of a city and the idea of resilience raises an important question—why measure? Resilience is assumed to be located in the physical infrastructure of specific places or as a quality of the people located there. For disasters, we are often trying to conceptualize, measure, or render legible resilience in physical structures. But what is it that we are trying to measure, and is the idea of a city reflected in these measurements? If cities are organized around something other than resilience, is resilience their natural by-product? What is necessitating the need for increased—and measured—resilience? Using interpretive policy analysis, we explored five well known disaster resilience frameworks (UNDRR’s Making Cities Resilient Campaign, UN-Habitat’s City Resilience Profiling Programme, The World Bank and GFDRR’s Resilient Cities Program, Arup and The Rockefeller Foundation’s City Resilience Index, and The Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 Resilient Cities) to identify the working definition of “city” and of “resilience.” We conclude that if the demand for cities to become more resilient is an acknowledgment of the risk produced by globalized urbanization, then the call itself is an indictment of the current state of our cities.

Disaster Risk Resilience: Conceptual Evolution, Key Issues, and Opportunities

Marie-Hélène Graveline, Daniel Germain

2022, 13(3): 330-341. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00419-0

Abstract(457) PDF

Abstract:
Resilience has become a cornerstone for risk management and disaster reduction. However, it has evolved extensively both etymologically and conceptually in time and across scientific disciplines. The concept has been (re)shaped by the evolution of research and practice efforts. Considered the opposite of vulnerability for a long time, resilience was first defined as the ability to resist, bounce back, cope with, and recover quickly from the impacts of hazards. To avoid the possible return to conditions of vulnerability and exposure to hazards, the notions of post-disaster development, transformation, and adaptation (build back better) and anticipation, innovation, and proactivity (bounce forward) were then integrated. Today, resilience is characterized by a multitude of components and several classifications. We present a selection of 25 components used to define resilience, and an interesting linkage emerges between these components and the dimensions of risk management (prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery), offering a perspective to strengthen resilience through the development of capacities. Despite its potential, resilience is subject to challenges regarding its operationalization, effectiveness, measurement, credibility, equity, and even its nature. Nevertheless, it offers applicability and opportunities for local communities as well as an interdisciplinary look at global challenges.

A Proposed Methodological Approach for Considering Community Resilience in Technology Development and Disaster Management Pilot Testing

Ioannis Benekos, Evangelos Bekiaris, Katarzyna Wodniak, Waleed Serhan, Łukasz Sułkowski, Hana Gharrad, Ansar Yasar

2022, 13(3): 342-357. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00417-2

Abstract(514) PDF

Abstract:
Nowadays, resilience has become an indispensable term in several aspects and areas of research and life. Reaching consensus on what actually constitutes “resilience,” “community,” and “community resilience” is still a task that guarantees a vivid exchange of opinions, sometimes escalating into debates, both in the scientific community and among practitioners. Figuring out how to practically apply resilience principles goes even a step further. This study attempts to circumvent the need for a universal agreement on the definition of “community resilience,” which may still be immature, if not impossible, at this time. We accomplish this by proposing a practical methodological approach with concrete methods on how to agree and implement commonly accepted community resilience principles in the context of technology development and pilot testing for disaster management. The proposed approach was developed, tested, and validated in the context of the Horizon 2020 EU-funded project Search and Rescue. Major aspects of the approach, along with considerations for further improvement and adaptation in different contexts, are addressed in the article.

Insights on Chemical and Natech Risk Management in Japan and South Korea: A Review of Current Practices

Hyejeong Park, Ana Maria Cruz

2022, 13(3): 359-371. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00409-2

Abstract(913) PDF

Abstract:
A growing number of natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (Natech) has been reported by several researchers, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. As a result, some governments have initiated direct efforts to manage Natech risks, particularly in the United States and Europe. However, two surveys conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2009 and 2017 found that there was a lack of proper risk management and risk governance for Natech among OECD member states, including Japan and South Korea. This study aimed to identify relevant regulations and practical considerations for chemical and Natech risk management from government perspectives in Japan and South Korea. The article provides a review of the current state of risk management, emergency response, and risk communication on chemical and Natech risk management in the two countries, and concludes with a discussion of some of the issues that require improvement of the current chemical risk management. Current practices for chemical risk management in Japan and South Korea point to the possibility of improvements in dealing with the Natech risks. These practical lessons will be valuable for improving the capacity for dealing with challenges in chemical and Natech risk management.

Appetite for Natech Risk Information in Japan: Understanding Citizens’ Communicative Behavior Towards Risk Information Disclosure Around Osaka Bay

Dimitrios Tzioutzios, Jeong-Nam Kim, Ana Maria Cruz

2022, 13(3): 372-390. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00415-4

Abstract(491) PDF

Abstract:
Effective risk communication is essential for disaster risk management. Apart from empowering communities to make informed risk choices, risk information disclosure can also drastically enhance their disaster preparedness, especially concerning conjoint scenarios of technological and natural hazards (Natech). A fundamental precondition is the actual demand for such information. This study ventures to assess whether residents around Osaka Bay have this demand, or “appetite,” for risk information disclosure, as well as to understand their communicative behavior and perceived challenges in the Japanese context through the prism of the Situational Theory of Problem Solving. To test this framework under realistic conditions, data were collected through a household questionnaire survey from two urban areas near industrial complexes in Osaka Bay. The results show that identifying Natech risk information deficiency as a problem was not a statistically significant predictor for individuals’ motivation to communicate. However, their motivation increased as their perceived personal involvement with the situation rose, while the perceived obstacles in doing something about it exerted a negative influence on their motivation. Individuals’ motivation intensified their communicative actions to solve this problem. Public segmentation underscored the elevated public perceptions concerning the issue of risk information deficiency in nearly nine out of ten respondents. These findings indicate a strong community appetite for chemical and Natech risk information, which subsequently led to high situational motivation to engage in communicative action, particularly information acquisition. Risk management policy is suggested to focus on introducing chemical risk information disclosure regulatory initiatives to encourage citizen engagement.

The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Iranian Oil and Gas Industry Planning: A Survey of Business Continuity Challenges

Seyyed Abdollah Razavi, Ali Asgary, Marjan Khaleghi

2022, 13(3): 391-400. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00412-7

Abstract(639) PDF

Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected various aspects of life, and its compounding and cascading impacts have been observed in most industries and firms. The oil and gas (O&G) industry was among the first to experience the impacts as the pandemic began due to the global economic recession and a sharp decline in demand for oil. The pandemic revealed major risk management and business continuity challenges and uncovered some of the vulnerabilities of the O&G industry and its major companies during a prolonged global disaster. Examining and understanding how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted the O&G sector in different countries, considering their unique circumstances, can provide important lessons for managing the current and future similar events. This study investigated various impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the O&G industry using Iran’s Pars Oil and Gas Company (POGC) as a case study. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with key managers of the company. Qualitative methods, specifically thematic analysis, were used to analyze the data. Findings of this study provide further insights into how the pandemic impacted the operations, risks, and business continuity of the POCG. The results show that the pandemic caused significant operational, financial, and legal impacts by disrupting routine maintenance, reducing the availability of human resources under the public health measures and mobility restrictions, increasing processing and delivery times, increasing costs and decreasing revenues, and delaying contractual obligations.

Multistate Models for the Recovery Process in the Covid-19 Context: An Empirical Study of Chinese Enterprises

Lijiao Yang, Yu Chen, Xinyu Jiang, Hirokazu Tatano

2022, 13(3): 401-414. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00414-5

Abstract(546) PDF

Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected enterprises worldwide. It is thus of practical significance to study the process of enterprise recovery from Covid-19. However, the research on the effects of relevant determinants of business recovery is limited. This article presents a multistate modeling framework that considers the determinants, recovery time, and transition likelihood of Chinese enterprises by the state of those enterprises as a result of the pandemic (recovery state), with the help of an accelerated failure time model. Empirical data from 750 enterprises were used to evaluate the recovery process. The results indicate that the main problems facing non-manufacturing industries are supply shortages and order cancellations. With the increase of supplies and orders, the probability of transition between different recovery states gradually increases, and the recovery time of enterprises becomes shorter. For manufacturing industries, the factors that hinder recovery are more complex. The main problems are employee panic and order cancellations in the initial stage, employee shortages in the middle stage, and raw material shortages in the full recovery stage. This study can provide a reference for enterprise recovery in the current pandemic context and help policymakers and business managers take necessary measures to accelerate recovery.

Rapid Evaluation and Response to Impacts on Critical End-Use Loads Following Natural Hazard-Driven Power Outages: A Modular and Responsive Geospatial Technology

Patrick D. Royer, Wei Du, Kevin Schneider

2022, 13(3): 415-434. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00413-6

Abstract(669) PDF

Abstract:
The disparate nature of data for electric power utilities complicates the emergency recovery and response process. The reduced efficiency of response to natural hazards and disasters can extend the time that electrical service is not available for critical end-use loads, and in extreme events, leave the public without power for extended periods. This article presents a methodology for the development of a semantic data model for power systems and the integration of electrical grid topology, population, and electric distribution line reliability indices into a unified, cloud-based, serverless framework that supports power system operations in response to extreme events. An iterative and pragmatic approach to working with large and disparate datasets of different formats and types resulted in improved application runtime and efficiency, which is important to consider in real time decision-making processes during hurricanes and similar catastrophic events. This technology was developed initially for Puerto Rico, following extreme hurricane and earthquake events in 2017 and 2020, but is applicable to utilities around the world. Given the highly abstract and modular design approach, this technology is equally applicable to any geographic region and similar natural hazard events. In addition to a review of the requirements, development, and deployment of this framework, technical aspects related to application performance and response time are highlighted.

On Effective Campus Attack Response: Insights from Agent-Based Simulation for Improving Emergency Information Sharing System Design and Response Strategy

Steven Beattie, Jing Yang Sunny Xi, Wai Kin Victor Chan

2022, 13(3): 435-447. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00418-1

Abstract(327) PDF

Abstract:
Information sharing systems are a critical component of emergency response—especially in campus attack situations that unfold very rapidly. The design of effective information sharing systems is often difficult, however, due to a lack of data on these assault events. This work takes an agent-based approach to simulate three campus emergency information sharing system design alternatives in the context of a college campus knife attack, and incorporates data from on-campus student surveys and parameter tuning experiments. Alternatives are evaluated according to: (1) improved student attack response outcomes; and (2) effective institutional response to the attack. The results confirm that increased awareness supports rapid emergency reporting, but an important gap exists between students’ awareness and their ability to respond effectively, which depends on a number of campus-specific factors. A strong positive impact is seen from safe and efficient information sharing with authorities. This impact depends largely on reporting system implementation qualities, as opposed to campus-specific factors. On a campus in China, WeChat was used as a basis for messaging models. The simulation results show a 9% drop in casualties and a 22% faster police response time from a text-based reporting system using “base” WeChat features instead of traditional phone reporting. Our results also project a 30% drop in casualties and 52% faster police response time using a system designed around a WeChat Mini Program or stand-alone campus emergency reporting app. These outcomes suggest a number of recommendations for improving outdated campus emergency information-sharing systems and response strategies.

Simulation Performance Evaluation and Uncertainty Analysis on a Coupled Inundation Model Combining SWMM and WCA2D

Zhaoyang Zeng, Zhaoli Wang, Chengguang Lai

2022, 13(3): 448-464. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00416-3

Abstract(388) PDF

Abstract:
Urban floods are becoming increasingly more frequent, which has led to tremendous economic losses. The application of inundation modeling to predict and simulate urban flooding is an effective approach for disaster prevention and risk reduction, while also addressing the uncertainty problem in the model is always a challenging task. In this study, a cellular automaton (CA)-based model combining a storm water management model (SWMM) and a weighted cellular automata 2D inundation model was applied and a physical-based model (LISFLOOD-FP) was also coupled with SWMM for comparison. The simulation performance and the uncertainty factors of the coupled model were systematically discussed. The results show that the CA-based model can achieve sufficient accuracy and higher computational efficiency than can a physical-based model. The resolution of terrain and rainstorm data had a strong influence on the performance of the CA-based model, and the simulations would be less creditable when using the input data with a terrain resolution lower than 15 m and a recorded interval of rainfall greater than 30 min. The roughness value and model type showed limited impacts on the change of inundation depth and occurrence of the peak inundation area. Generally, the CA-based coupled model demonstrated laudable applicability and can be recommended for fast simulation of urban flood episodes. This study also can provide references and implications for reducing uncertainty when constructing a CA-based coupled model.

Extreme Wind Variability and Wind Map Development in Western Java, Indonesia

Muhammad Rais Abdillah, Prasanti Widyasih Sarli, Hafidz Rizky Firmansyah, Anjar Dimara Sakti, Faiz Rohman Fajary, Robi Muharsyah, Gian Gardian Sudarman

2022, 13(3): 465-480. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00420-7

Abstract(288) PDF

Abstract:
Wind-related disasters are one of the most frequent disasters in Indonesia. It can cause severe damages of residential construction, especially in the world’s most populated island of Java. Understanding the characteristics of extreme winds is crucial for mitigating the disasters and for defining structural design standards. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variations of extreme winds and pioneered a design wind map in Indonesia by focusing on western Java. Based on gust data observed in recent years from 24 stations, the extreme winds exhibit a clear annual cycle where northwestern and southeastern sides of western Java show out-of-phase relationship due to reversal monsoons. Meanwhile, extreme wind occurrences are mostly affected by small-scale weather systems, regardless of seasons and locations. To build the wind map, we used bias-corrected gust from ERA5 and applied the Gumbel method to predict extreme winds with different return periods. The wind map highlights some drawbacks of the current national design standards, which use single wind speed values regardless of location and return period. Beside a fundamental improvement for wind design, this study will benefit disaster risk mapping and other applications that require extreme wind speed distribution.

CORRECTION

Correction to: A Proposed Methodological Approach for Considering Community Resilience in Technology Development and Disaster Management Pilot Testing