Multi-criteria Satisfaction Assessment of the Spatial Distribution of Urban Emergency Shelters Based on High-Precision Population Estimation

This article introduces a framework for the multi-criteria satisfaction assessment of the spatial distribution of urban emergency shelters. A GIS-based analytic hierarchy process approach was utilized to conduct the assessment based on selected criteria layers for daytime and nighttime scenarios, respectively. The layers were generated from high-precision land use data based on high-resolution aerial images and census data. Considering the uncertainty in criteria weighting, a spatial sensitivity analysis was undertaken for deriving more accurate results. The feasibility of the framework was tested on a case study in Jing’an District, Shanghai, China. The assessment results show that both at nighttime and during daytime, even if all potentially available shelters are open, the demand in large areas can only be marginally satisfied or not satisfied, especially in the northern, eastern, and central parts of Jing’an District. The quantitative analysis of the satisfaction conditions of the buildings or land parcels and the affected people, especially children and the elderly, shows a low satisfaction level of shelter services in these areas. The satisfaction assessment of emergency shelters can help government decision makers find low satisfaction areas of sheltering services and support further location-allocation optimization of urban emergency shelters.