Challenges with Disaster Mortality Data and Measuring Progress Towards the Implementation of the Sendai Framework

Helen K. Green; Oliver Lysaght; Dell D. Saulnier; Kevin Blanchard; Alistair Humphrey; Bapon Fakhruddin; Virginia Murray

doi:10.1007/s13753-019-00237-x

Article Contents

Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2019 > 10(4): 449-461

Helen K. Green, Oliver Lysaght, Dell D. Saulnier, Kevin Blanchard, Alistair Humphrey, Bapon Fakhruddin, Virginia Murray. Challenges with Disaster Mortality Data and Measuring Progress Towards the Implementation of the Sendai Framework[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2019, 10(4): 449-461. doi: 10.1007/s13753-019-00237-x

Citation:

Helen K. Green, Oliver Lysaght, Dell D. Saulnier, Kevin Blanchard, Alistair Humphrey, Bapon Fakhruddin, Virginia Murray. Challenges with Disaster Mortality Data and Measuring Progress Towards the Implementation of the Sendai Framework[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2019, 10(4): 449-461. doi: 10.1007/s13753-019-00237-x

Citation:

Helen K. Green, Oliver Lysaght, Dell D. Saulnier, Kevin Blanchard, Alistair Humphrey, Bapon Fakhruddin, Virginia Murray. Challenges with Disaster Mortality Data and Measuring Progress Towards the Implementation of the Sendai Framework[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2019, 10(4): 449-461. doi: 10.1007/s13753-019-00237-x

PDF

Challenges with Disaster Mortality Data and Measuring Progress Towards the Implementation of the Sendai Framework

doi: 10.1007/s13753-019-00237-x

1 Global Disaster Risk Reduction, Public Health England, London SE1 8UG, UK;
2 Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, 171 77 Stockholm, Sweden;
3 Canterbury District Health Board, Christchurch 8140, New Zealand;
4 Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience, Tonkin+Taylor, Auckland 1141, New Zealand

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

Disasters exact a heavy toll globally. However, the degree to which we can accurately quantify their impact, in particular mortality, remains challenging. It is critical to ensure that disaster data reliably reflects the scale, type, and distribution of disaster impacts given the role of data in:(1) risk assessments; (2) developing disaster risk management programs; (3) determining the resources for response to emergencies; (4) the types of action undertaken in planning for prevention and preparedness; and (5) identifying research gaps. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030s seven global disaster-impact reduction targets represent the first international attempt to systematically measure the effectiveness of disaster-impact reduction as a means of better informing policy with evidence. Target A of the Sendai Framework aims to "substantially reduce global disaster mortality by 2030, aiming to lower the average per 100,000 global mortality rate in the decade 2020-2030 compared to the period 2005-2015." This article provides an overview of the complexities associated with defining, reporting, and interpreting disaster mortality data used for gauging success in meeting Target A, acknowledging different challenges for different types of hazard events and subsequent disasters. It concludes with suggestions of how to address these challenges to inform the public health utility of monitoring through the Sendai Framework.
- Data,
- Disaster mortality,
- Disaster risk management,
- Disaster risk reduction,
- Mass casualty,
- Sendai Framework

FullText(HTML)

References(62)

References

Albala-Bertrand, J.M. 2013. Disasters and the networked economy. Routledge Studies in Development Economics. Oxon:Routledge.

Aitsi-Selmi, A., V. Murray, C. Wannous, C. Dickinson, D. Johnston, A. Kawasaki, A.S. Stevance, and T. Yeung. 2016. Reflections on a science and technology agenda for 21st century disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 7(1):1-29.

Anderson, R.N. 2011. Coding and classifying causes of death:Trends and international differences. In International handbook of adult mortality, ed. R. Rogers, and E. Crimmins, 467-489. Dordrecht:Springer.

Bouwer, L.M., and S.N. Jonkman. 2018. Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing. Environmental Research Letters 13(1):Article 014008.

Brunkard, J., N. Gonza, and R. Raoult. 2005. Hurricane Katrina deaths, Louisiana, 2005. Disaster Medicine & Public Health Preparedness 20(4):215-223.

Byass, P. 2007. Who needs cause-of-death data? PLOS Medicine 4(11):1715-1716.

CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). 2017. Death scene investigation after natural disaster or other weather-related events toolkit, 1st edn. Atlanta, GA:CDC.

Choudhary, E., F.Z. David, C. Beasley, R. Jones, A. Rey, R.S. Noe, C. Martin, A.F. Wolkin, and T.M. Bayleyegn. 2008. Evaluation of active mortality surveillance system data for monitoring hurricane-related deaths-Texas, 2008. Prehospital Disaster Medicine 27(4):392-397.

Clarke, L., K. Blanchard, R. Maini, A. Radu, Z. Zaidi, and V. Murray. 2017. Knowing what we know-reflections on the development of technical guidance for loss data for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. PLOS Currents Disasters 1. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.537bd80d1037a2ffde67d66c604d2a78.

Combs, D.L., L.E. Quenemoen, P.R. Gibson, and J.H. Davis. 1999. Assessing disaster-attributed mortality:Development and application of a definition and classification matrix. International Journal of Epidemiology 28(6):1124-1129.

CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). 2017. EM-DAT:The international disaster database explanatory notes. Brussels:CRED. http://www.emdat.be/explanatory-notes. Accessed 19 Mar 2017.

de Souza Boeno, R.K., and V. Soromenho-Marques. 2017. Climate deterrence:Disasters and security after COP 21. In Information technology in disaster risk reduction:First IFIP TC 5 DCITDRR International Conference, ed. Y. Murayama, D. Velev, P. Zlateva, and J. Gonzalez, 119-138. Switzerland:Springer International Publishing.

DesInventar. 2018. Inventory system of the effects of disasters. Cali, Colombia:Desinventar. https://www.desinventar.org/en/desinventar.html. Accessed 15 Aug 2018.

Devis, T., and C. Rooney. 1997. The time taken to register a death (registration of death in the United Kingdom). Population Trends 88:48-55.

European Commission. 2015. JRC science and policy reports-Guidance for recording and sharing disaster damage and loss data. Ispra, Italy:EC.

European Commission. 2016. Horizon 2020 Commission expert group on turning FAIR data into reality (E03464). http://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regexpert/index.cfm?do=groupDetail.groupDetail&groupID=3464. Accessed 15 Aug 2018.

European Commission. 2018. Human impact by disasters in 2017. Brussels:ECHO. http://erccportal.jrc.ec.europa.eu/emaildailymap/title/ECHO%20Daily%20Map%20of%2016%20April%202018. Accessed 16 Aug 2018.

Fraser, C., C.A. Donnelly, S. Cauchemez, W.P. Hanage, M.D. Van Kerkhove, T.D. Hollingsworth, J. Griffin, R.F. Baggaley, et al. 2009. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1):Early findings. Science 324(5934):1557-1561.

Gautam, S., J. Menachem, S.K. Srivastav, P. Delafontaine, and A. Irimpen. 2009. Effect of Hurricane Katrina on the incidence of acute coronary syndrome at a primary angioplasty center in New Orleans. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 3(3):144-150.

GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. 2016. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015:A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet 388(10053):1459-1544.

Green, H.K., N.J. Andrews, B. Armstrong, G. Bickler, and R.G. Pebody. 2016. Mortality during the 2013 heatwave in England-How did it compare to previous heatwaves? A retrospective observational study. Environmental Research 147:343-349.

Guha-Sapir, D., and P. Hoyois. 2015. Estimating populations affected by disasters:A review of methodological issues and research gaps. Brussels:CRED and IRSS.

Haagsma, J.A., N. Graetz, I. Bolliger, M. Naghavi, H. Higashi, E.C. Mullany, S.F. Abera, J.P. Abraham, et al. 2016. The global burden of injury:Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life year estimates and time trends from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Injury Prevention 22(1):3-18.

Hill, K., A.D. Lopez, K. Shibuya, and P. Jha. 2007. Interim measures for meeting needs for health sector data:Births, deaths and causes of death. The Lancet 370(9600):1726-1735.

IEAG (Independent Expert Advisory Group on a Data Revolution for Sustainable Development). 2014. A world that counts-Mobilising the data revolution for sustainable development. Report prepared at the request of the United Nations Secretary-General, by the IEAG. http://www.undatarevolution.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/A-World-That-Counts2.pdf. Accessed 15 Aug 2018.

International Digital Health Conference. 2018. Public health and emergencies in the age of big data. https://www.acm-digitalhealth.org/2018/highlights-from-2018-2/index.html. Accessed 18 Sept 2019.

IRDR (Integrated Research on Disaster Risk). 2015. Guidelines on measuring losses from disasters:Human and economic impact indicators (IRDR Data Publication No. 2). Beijing:Integrated Research on Disaster Risk.

Ishiguro, A., Y. Togita, M. Inoue, T. Ohkubo, and E. Yano. 2015. Identification of disaster-vulnerable communities by use of census data prior to the Great East Japan Earthquake. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness 9(1):19-28.

Kishore, N., D. Marqués, A. Mahmud, M.V. Kiang, I. Rodriguez, A. Fuller, P. Ebner, C. Sorensen, et al. 2018. Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. New England Journal of Medicine 379(2):162-170.

Kolbe, A.R., R.A. Hutson, H. Shannon, E. Trzcinski, B. Miles, N. Levitz, M. Puccio, L. James, et al. 2010. Mortality, crime and access to basic needs before and after the Haiti Earthquake:A random survey of Port-au-Prince households. Medicine Conflict and Survival 26(4):281-297.

Lapidos, J. 2008. Natural-disaster death tolls:Who's counting? Slate. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2008/05/naturaldisaster_death_tolls.html. Accessed 15 Aug 2018.

Lipsitch, M., F.G. Hayden, B.J. Cowling, and G.M. Leung. 2009. How to maintain surveillance for novel influenza A H1N1 when there are too many cases to count. The Lancet 374(9696):1209-1211.

Lo, S., and R. Horton. 2015. Everyone counts-So count everyone. The Lancet 386(10001):1313-1314.

Mezinska, S., P. Kakuk, G. Mijaljica, M. Waligóra, and D.P. O'Mathúna. 2016. Research in disaster settings:A systematic qualitative review of ethical guidelines. BMC Medical Ethics 17(1):Article 62.

Mikkelsen, L., D.E. Phillips, C. AbouZahr, P.W. Setel, D. de Savigny, R. Lozano, and A.D. Lopez. 2015. A global assessment of civil registration and vital statistics systems:Monitoring data quality and progress. The Lancet 386(10001):1395-1406.

Murray, V., M. Catchpole, M. Hagenlocher, R. Maini, C. Margarita Montesinos Guevara, C. Roth, C. Sellwood, and T. Yeung. 2017a. Biological risk:Epidemics. In Science for disaster risk management 2017:Knowing better and losing less, ed. K. Poljanšek, M. Marín Ferrer, T. De Groeve, and I. Clark, 306-315. Luxembourg:Publications Office of the European Union.

Murray, V., R. Maini, L. Clarke, and N. Eltinay. 2017b. Policy brief:Coherence between the Sendai Framework, the SDGs, the Climate Agreement, New Urban Agenda and the World Humanitarian Summit, and the role of science in their implementation. Paris:International Council for Science.

Noe, R.S. 2017. Applications:Disaster-related mortality surveillance:Challenges and considerations for local and state health departments. In Disaster epidemiology:Methods and applications, ed. J.A. Horney, 55-63. Cambridge, USA:Academic Press.

OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). 2018. Assessing the real cost of disasters:The need for better evidence, OECD reviews of risk management policies. Paris:OECD Publishing.

Office for National Statistics. 2018a. UK data gaps:Inclusive data action plan towards the global sustainable development goal indicators. London:UK Office for National Statistics.

Office for National Statistics. 2018b. Excess winter mortality in England and Wales:2017 to 2018 (provisional) and 2016 to 2017 (final). London:UK Office for National Statistics.

Osuteye, E., C. Johnson, and D. Brown. 2017. The data gap:An analysis of data availability on disaster losses in Sub-Saharan African cities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 26:24-33.

Our World in Data. 2017. What was the death toll from Chernobyl and Fukushima? https://ourworldindata.org/what-was-the-death-toll-from-chernobyl-and-fukushima. Accessed 15 Aug 2018.

Ragan, P., J. Schulte, S.J. Nelson, and K.T. Jones. 2008. Mortality surveillance:2004 to 2005 Florida hurricane-related deaths. American Journal of Forensic Medical Pathology 29(2):148-153.

Rampatige, R., L. Mikkelsen, B. Hernandez, I. Riley, and A.D. Lopez. 2014. Hospital cause-of-death statistics:What should we make of them? Bulletin of the World Health Organization 92(1):3-3A.

Robles, F., D. Kenan, S. Fink, and S. Almukhtar. 2017. Official toll in Puerto Rico:64 actual deaths may be 1,052. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/12/08/us/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-death-toll.html. Accessed 15 Feb 2019.

SAMSA (Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration). 2016. Disaster technical assistance center supplemental research bulletin:Challenges and considerations in disaster research. https://www.samhsa.gov/sites/default/files/dtac/supplemental-research-bulletin-jan-2016.pdf. Accessed 18 Sept 2019.

Santos-Lozada, A.R., and J.T. Howard. 2017. Estimates of excess deaths in Puerto Rico following Hurricane María. SocArXiv. https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/s7dmu/. Accessed 18 Sept 2019.

Saulnier, D.D., K. Brolin Ribacke, and J. von Schreeb. 2017. No calm after the storm:A systematic review of human health following flood and storm disasters. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 32(5):1-12.

SDSN TReNDS. 2017. Counting on the world:Building modern data systems for sustainable development. Paris:Sustainable Development Solutions Network.

Sibai, A.M. 2004. Mortality certification and cause-of-death reporting in developing countries. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 82(2):83-83A.

Siegler, A., L. Roberts, E. Balch, E. Bargues, A. Bhalla, C. Bills, E. Dzeng, Y. Epelboym, et al. 2008. Media coverage of violent deaths in Iraq:An opportunistic capture-recapture assessment. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 23(4):369-371.

UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2015a. Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030. Geneva:UNISDR.

UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2015b. Launch of the 2015 global assessment report on disaster risk reduction. New York:UNISDR.

UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2015c. Annex to the working background text on indicators for the 7global targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva:UNISDR.

UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2017a. Technical guidance for monitoring and reporting on progress in achieving the global targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction:Collection of technical notes on data and methodology. Geneva:UNISDR.

UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2017b. Terminology on disaster risk reduction. Geneva:UNISDR.

UNISDR and CRED (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). 2016. Poverty & death:Disaster mortality 1996-2015. Geneva and Brussels:UNISDR and CRED.

United Nations Statistics Division. 2017. Coverage of birth and death registration. https://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic-social/crvs/. Accessed 18 Sept 2019.

WHO (World Health Organization). 2004. ICD-10:International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems:Tenth revision, 2nd edn. World Health Organization. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/42980. Accessed 18 Sept 2019.

WHO (World Health Organization). 2015. Ethics in epidemics, emergencies and disasters:Research, surveillance and patient care:Training manual. Geneva:WHO.

World Bank and WHO (World Health Organization). 2014. Global civil registration and vital statistics:Scaling up investment plan 2015-24. Washington, DC:World Bank Group.

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Proportional views