Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Rainfall-Induced Complex Landslide in Wanzhou County, Three Gorges Reservoir, China

Lili Xiao; Jiajia Wang; Yanbo Zhu; Jun Zhang

doi:10.1007/s13753-020-00257-y

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2020 > 11(3): 347-363

Lili Xiao, Jiajia Wang, Yanbo Zhu, Jun Zhang. Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Rainfall-Induced Complex Landslide in Wanzhou County, Three Gorges Reservoir, China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2020, 11(3): 347-363. doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00257-y

Citation:

Lili Xiao, Jiajia Wang, Yanbo Zhu, Jun Zhang. Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Rainfall-Induced Complex Landslide in Wanzhou County, Three Gorges Reservoir, China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2020, 11(3): 347-363. doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00257-y

Citation:

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Quantitative Risk Analysis of a Rainfall-Induced Complex Landslide in Wanzhou County, Three Gorges Reservoir, China

doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00257-y

1 School of Highway, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, China;
2 School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, China;
3 Tunnel and Underground Engineering Research Center of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210041, China

Funds:

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Numbers 41907234 and 41907237), the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province (Grant Number 2017JQ4010 and 2018JQ4041), the Postdoctoral Research Foundation of China (Grant Number 2017M613033), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, (Grant Numbers 300102210215, 300102210210, 300102219107 and 300102219104). We thank the Wanzhou Geological Environment Monitoring Station and the Nanjiang Hydrogeological Engineering Geological Team for providing us with valuable data. We also thank Prof. Kunlong Yin and Prof. Bo Chai from the China University of Geosciences and Prof. Steven N. Ward of the University of California, Santa Cruz for their significant contributions in improving this manuscript.

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

On 4 April 2013, a 1.5 million cubic meter landslide occurred in Sunjia Town, Wanzhou County, Three Gorges Reservoir, China. After initiation, the Sunjia landslide traveled about 30 m toward the northeast and destroyed most of the infrastructure in its path. The landslide was triggered by heavy rainfall and previous slope excavations, but this slope also displayed a complicated failure process: the overlying earth slope first deformed and then induced sliding along underlying rock surfaces. Surface displacements that resulted from continuous creeping of the post-event slope were observed by an emergency monitoring system that revealed the disequilibrium state of the slope. To discuss the stability and future movements of the remaining unstable debris deposits, we developed a geotechnical model of the post-slide slope, calculated how it can slide again in an extreme rainfall scenario, and estimated the potential runout distance using the Tsunami Squares method. We then estimated the number of people and the value of the infrastructure threatened by this potential landslide. Lastly, we analyzed the vulnerability of elements at risk and quantitatively evaluated the hazard risk associated with the most dangerous scenario. This quantitative risk analysis provides a better understanding of, and technical routes for, hazard mitigation of rainfall-induced complex landslides.
- China,
- Hazard mitigation,
- Quantitative risk analysis,
- Rainfall-induced landslides,
- Runout simulation,
- Slope stability,
- Three Gorges Reservoir

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References(63)

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