Rainfall-Related Weather Indices for Three Main Crops in China

Jing Zhang; Zhao Zhang; Fulu Tao

doi:10.1007/s13753-020-00283-w

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2020 > 11(4): 466-483

Jing Zhang, Zhao Zhang, Fulu Tao. Rainfall-Related Weather Indices for Three Main Crops in China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2020, 11(4): 466-483. doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00283-w

Citation:

Jing Zhang, Zhao Zhang, Fulu Tao. Rainfall-Related Weather Indices for Three Main Crops in China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2020, 11(4): 466-483. doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00283-w

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Rainfall-Related Weather Indices for Three Main Crops in China

doi: 10.1007/s13753-020-00283-w

1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Hazards of the Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Funds:

This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project Number: 41977405, 31761143006), the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, and the National Scholarship Fund of China Scholarship Council. We also appreciate the support of Dr. Daniel Osgood of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University.

Available Online: 2021-04-26

Abstract

Abstract

Rainfall-related hazards—deficit rain and excessive rain—inevitably stress crop production, and weather index insurance is one possible financial tool to mitigate such agro-metrological losses. In this study, we investigated where two rainfall-related weather indices—anomaly-based index (AI) and humidity-based index (HI)—could be best used for three main crops (rice, wheat, and maize) in China's main agricultural zones. A county is defined as an “insurable county” if the correlation between a weather index and yield loss was significant. Among maize-cropping counties, both weather indices identified more insurable counties for deficit rain than for excessive rain (AI: 172 vs 63; HI: 182 vs 68); moreover, AI identified lower basis risk for deficit rain in most agricultural zones while HI for excessive rain. For rice, the number of AI-insurable counties was higher than the number of HI-insurable counties for deficit rain (274 vs 164), but lower for excessive rain (199 vs 272); basis risks calculated by two weather indices showed obvious difference only in Zone I. Finally, more wheat-insurable counties (AI: 196 vs 71; HI: 73 vs 59) and smaller basis risk indicate that both weather indices performed better for excessive rain in wheat-planting counties. In addition, most insurable counties showed independent yield loss, but did not necessarily result in effective risk pooling. This study is a primary evaluation of rainfall-related weather indices for the three main crops in China, which will be significantly helpful to the agricultural insurance market and governments' policy making.
- Agricultural insurance,
- China,
- Deficit rain,
- Excessive rain,
- Risk pooling,
- Weather index

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References(69)

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