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Volume 12 Issue 3
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Article Navigation >  International Journal of Disaster Risk Science  > 2021  >  12(3): 428-442
Yuanyuan Yin, Yuan Gao, Degen Lin, Lei Wang, Weidong Ma, Jing'ai Wang. Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(3): 428-442. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00349-3
Citation: Yuanyuan Yin, Yuan Gao, Degen Lin, Lei Wang, Weidong Ma, Jing'ai Wang. Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(3): 428-442. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00349-3
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Mapping the Global-Scale Maize Drought Risk Under Climate Change Based on the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk Model

doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00349-3

  • 1 Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS), Beijing 100101, China;

  • 2 CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS), Beijing 100101, China;

  • 3 School of Geography, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;

  • 4 College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China;

  • 5 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;

  • 6 School of Geographical Science, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 81008, China;

  • 7 Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Funds:

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41671501, 41901046, and 91747201). The bias-corrected and downscaled projection data of HadGEM2-ES were obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP) Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Node (http://esg.pik-potsdam.de). We acknowledge the ISIMIP coordination team for the model outputs.

  • Available Online: 2021-12-25
  • Publish Date: 2021-12-25
    Abstract
  • Drought is projected to become more frequent and increasingly severe under climate change in many agriculturally important areas. However, few studies have assessed and mapped the future global crop drought risk—defined as the occurrence probability and likelihood of yield losses from drought—at high resolution. With support of the GEPIC-Vulnerability-Risk model, we propose an analytical framework to quantify and map the future global-scale maize drought risk at a 0.5° resolution. In this framework, the model can be calibrated and validated using datasets from in situ observations (for example, yield statistics, losses caused by drought) and the literature. Water stress and drought risk under climate change can then be simulated. To evaluate the applicability of the framework, a global-scale assessment of maize drought risk under 1.5 ℃ warming was conducted. At 1.5 ℃ warming, the maize drought risk is projected to be regionally variable (high in the midlatitudes and low in the tropics and subtropics), with only a minor negative (-0.93%) impact on global maize yield. The results are consistent with previous studies of drought impacts on maize yield of major agricultural countries around the world. Therefore, the framework can act as a practical tool for global-scale, future-oriented crop drought risk assessment, and the results provide theoretical support for adaptive planning strategies for drought.
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