An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador

Jorge Salgado; José Ramírez-Álvarez; Diego Mancheno

doi:10.1007/s13753-021-00354-6

Volume 12 Issue 4

Dec. 2021

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Jorge Salgado, José Ramírez-Álvarez, Diego Mancheno. An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(4): 510-527. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00354-6

Citation:

Jorge Salgado, José Ramírez-Álvarez, Diego Mancheno. An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(4): 510-527. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00354-6

Citation:

Jorge Salgado, José Ramírez-Álvarez, Diego Mancheno. An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(4): 510-527. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00354-6

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An Input–Output Ex Ante Regional Model to Assess the Short-Term Net Effects of the 16 April 2016 Earthquake in Ecuador

doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00354-6

Faculty of Economics, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, 17012184, Quito, Pichincha, Ecuador

Funds:

We would like to express our appreciation to Rocio Bermeo and Rommel Montúfar for their support to the research and the social work of the School of Economics in the context of a natural hazard and disaster. We also would like to thank María Angélica Trujillo, Diego Gallarado, and Daniel Viola for their research assistance.

Available Online: 2021-12-25
Publish Date: 2021-12-25

Abstract

Abstract

The 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador. This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective, with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study. In general, the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model, which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers. Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated, which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method. The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant, and under some of the simulated scenarios, based on the official information with respect to earthquake management, the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.
- Earthquake impact,
- Ecuador,
- Input-output,
- RAS method,
- Regional model

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References(45)

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