Citation: | Chunyang He, Qingxu Huang, Xuemei Bai, Derek T. Robinson, Peijun Shi, Yinyin Dou, Bo Zhao, Jubo Yan, Qiang Zhang, Fangjin Xu, James Daniell. A Global Analysis of the Relationship Between Urbanization and Fatalities in Earthquake-Prone Areas[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(6): 805-820. doi: 10.1007/s13753-021-00385-z |
Abramson, D.B., and Y. Qi. 2011. “Urban-rural integration” in the earthquake zone: Sichuan’s post-disaster reconstruction and the expansion of the Chengdu Metropole. Pacific Affairs 84(3): 495-523.
|
Aitsi-Selmi, A., S. Egawa, H. Sasaki, C. Wannous, and V. Murray. 2015. The Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction: Renewing the global commitment to people’s resilience, health, and well-being. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 6(2): 164-176.
|
Alçada-Almeida, L., L. Tralhao, L. Santos, and J. Coutinho-Rodrigues. 2009. A multiobjective approach to locate emergency shelters and identify evacuation routes in urban areas. Geographical Analysis 41(1): 9-29.
|
Alirol, E., G. Laurent, S. Beat, C. François, and L. Louis. 2011. Urbanisation and infectious diseases in a globalised world. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 11(2): 131-141.
|
Allen, T.I., K.D. Marano, P.S. Earle, and D.J. Wald. 2009. PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models. Seismological Research Letters 80(1): 57-62.
|
Ambraseys, N., and R. Bilham. 2011. Corruption kills. Nature 469(7329): 153-155.
|
Bai, X., T. McPhearson, H. Cleugh, H. Nagendra, X. Tong, T. Zhu, and Y.G. Zhu. 2017. Linking urbanization and the environment: Conceptual and empirical advances. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 42(1): 215-240.
|
Bilham, R. 1999. Millions at risk as big cities grow space in earthquake zones. Nature 401(6755): 738-738.
|
Bilham, R. 2004. Urban earthquake fatalities: A safer world, or worse to come?. Seismological Research Letters 75(6): 706-712.
|
Bilham, R. 2009. The seismic future of cities. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 7(4): 839-887.
|
Bilham, R. 2014. Aggravated earthquake risk in South Asia: Engineering versus human nature. In Earthquake hazard, risk and disasters, ed. J.F. Shroder, and M. Wyss, 103-141. Boston: Academic Press.
|
Bilham, R., and V. Gaur. 2013. Buildings as weapons of mass destruction. Science 341(6146): 618-619.
|
Bloom, D.E., D. Canning, and G. Fink. 2008. Urbanization and the wealth of nations. Science 319(5864): 772-775.
|
Boke-Olén, N., A. Abdi, O. Hall, and V. Lehsten. 2017. High-resolution African population projections from radiative forcing and socio-economic models, 2000 to 2100. Scientific Data 4(1): 1-9.
|
Chen, G., X. Li, X. Liu, Y. Chen, X. Liang, J. Leng, X. Xu, W. Liao, et al. 2020a. Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways. Nature Communications 11: Article 537.
|
Chen, Y., F. Guo, J. Wang, W. Cai, C. Wang, and K. Wang. 2020b. Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100. Scientific Data 7(1): 1-13.
|
Chen, Y., X. Li, K. Huang, M. Luo, and M. Gao. 2020c. High‐resolution gridded population projections for China under the shared socioeconomic pathways. Earth’s Future 8(6): Article e2020EF001491.
|
Crowley, K., and J.R. Elliott. 2012. Earthquake disasters and resilience in the global North: Lessons from New Zealand and Japan. The Geographical Journal 178(3): 208-215.
|
Daniell, J.E., B. Khazai, F. Wenzel, and A. Vervaeck. 2011. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11(8): 2235-2251.
|
Daniell, J.E., A.M. Schaefer, and F. Wenzel. 2017. Losses associated with secondary effects in earthquakes. Frontiers in Built Environment 3: Article 30
|
Daniell, J.E., F. Wenzel, B. Khazai, J.G. Santiago, and A. Schaefer. 2014. A worldwide seismic code index, country-by-country global building practice factor and socioeconomic vulnerability indices for use in earthquake loss estimation. In Proceedings of 2nd European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 25-29 August 2014, Istanbul, Turkey.
|
de Ruiter, M.C., P.J. Ward, J.E. Daniell, and J.C.J.H. Aerts. 2017. Review article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17(7): 1231-1251.
|
Djordjević, M., A. Radivojević, R. Dragović, and I. Filipović. 2016. Exposure to earthquakes-distribution and change of the world’s population with regard to disposition of seismic activities. Journal of the Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic” SASA 66(3): 353-370.
|
Doberstein, B., and H. Stager. 2013. Towards guidelines for post-disaster vulnerability reduction in informal settlements. Disasters 37(1): 28-47.
|
Doocy, S., M. Cherewick, and T. Kirsch. 2013a. Mortality following the Haitian earthquake of 2010: A stratified cluster survey. Population Health Metrics 11: Article 5.
|
Doocy, S., A. Daniels, C. Packer, A. Dick, and T.D. Kirsch. 2013. The human impact of earthquakes: A historical review of events 1980-2009 and systematic literature review. PLoS Currents Disasters. https://doi.org/10.1371/currents.dis.67bd14fe457f1db0b5433a8ee20fb833
|
Dou, Y., Q. Huang, C. He, S. Meng, and Q. Zhang. 2018. Rapid population growth throughout Asia’s earthquake-prone areas: A multiscale analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15(9): Article 1893.
|
EM-DAT. 2018. The Emergency Events Database. Brussels, Belgium: Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). www.emdat.be. Accessed 16 Nov 2021.
|
England, P., and J. Jackson. 2011. Uncharted seismic risk. Nature Geoscience 4(6): 348-349.
|
Frolking, S., T. Milliman, K.C. Seto, and M.A. Friedl. 2013. A global fingerprint of macro-scale changes in urban structure from 1999 to 2009. Environmental Research Letters 8(2): Article 024004.
|
Gerstenberger, M.C., W. Marzocchi, T. Allen, M. Pagani, J. Adams, L. Danciu, E.H. Field, H. Fujiwara, et al. 2020. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at regional and national scale: State of the art and future challenges. Reviews of Geophysics 58(2): Article e2019RG000653.
|
Goldewijk, K.K. 2016. A historical land use data set for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2 (replaced). The Hague: Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS).
|
Green, R. 2008. Informal settlements and natural hazard vulnerability in rapid growth cities. In Hazards and the built environment: Attaining built-in resilience, ed. L. Bosher, 218-237. London and New York: Routledge.
|
Güneralp, B., M. Reba, B.U. Hales, E.A. Wentz, and K.C. Seto. 2020. Trends in urban land expansion, density, and land transitions from 1970 to 2010: A global synthesis. Environmental Research Letters 15(4): Article 044015.
|
He, C., Q. Huang, Y. Dou, W. Tu, and J. Liu. 2016. The population in China’s earthquake-prone areas has increased by over 32 million along with rapid urbanization. Environmental Research Letters 11(7): Article 074028.
|
He, X., J. Wu, C. Wang, and M. Ye. 2018. Historical earthquakes and their socioeconomic consequences in China: 1950-2017. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15(12): Article 2728.
|
Henderson, J.V., A.J. Venables, T. Regan, and I. Samsonov. 2016. Building functional cities. Science 352(6288): 946-947.
|
Holzer, T.L., and J.C. Savage. 2013. Global earthquake fatalities and population. Earthquake Spectra 29(1): 155-175.
|
Huang, Q., S. Meng, C. He, Y. Dou, and Q. Zhang. 2018. Rapid urban land expansion in earthquake-prone areas of China. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 10(1): 43-56.
|
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2018. Summary for policymakers. In Global warming of 1.5℃. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5℃ above preindustrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, et al., 3-24. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.
|
Ishibe, T., and K. Shimazaki. 2012. Characteristic earthquake model and seismicity around late quaternary active faults in Japan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 102(3): 1041-1058.
|
Jackson, J. 2006. Fatal attraction: Living with earthquakes, the growth of villages into megacities, and earthquake vulnerability in the modern world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 364(1845): 1911-1925.
|
Jaiswal, K., and D. Wald. 2010. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation. Earthquake Spectra 26(4): 1017-1037.
|
Jaiswal, K., W. David, and D. Dina. 2011a. Developing empirical collapse fragility functions for global building types. Earthquake Spectra 27(3): 775-795.
|
Jaiswal, K.S., D.J. Wald, P.S. Earle, K.A. Porter, and M. Hearne. 2011b. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. In Human casualties in earthquakes, ed. R. Spence, E. So, and C. Scawthorn, 83-94. Dordrecht: Springer.
|
Jiang, L., and B.C. O’Neill. 2017. Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change 42: 193-199.
|
Lankao, R.P., and H. Qin. 2011. Conceptualizing urban vulnerability to global climate and environmental change. Current Opinion on Environmental Sustainability 3(3): 142-149.
|
Lavell, A., M.D. Oppenheimer, J. Hess, R. Lempert, J. Li, R. Muir-Wood, and S. Myeong. 2012. Climate change: New dimensions in disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability, and resilience. In Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, ed. C.B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, et al., 25-64. A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
|
Leyk, S., A.E. Gaughan, S.B. Adamo, A. de Sherbinin, D. Balk, S. Freire, A. Rose, and F.R. Stevens et al. 2019. The spatial allocation of population: A review of large-scale gridded population data products and their fitness for use. Earth System Science Data 11(3): 1385-1409.
|
Li, M., Z. Zou, G. Xu, and P. Shi. 2015. Mapping earthquake risk of the world. In World atlas of natural disaster risk, ed. P. Shi, and R. Kasperson, 25-39. IHDP/Future Earth-Integrated Risk Governance Project Series. Berlin and Heidelberg: Springer.
|
Liu, M., and S. Stein. 2016. Mid-continental earthquakes: Spatiotemporal occurrences, causes, and hazards. Earth-Science Reviews 162: 364-386.
|
Martins, V.N., P. Cabral, and D. Sousa. 2012. Urban modeling for seismic prone areas: The case study of Vila Franca do Campo (Azores Archipelago, Portugal). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12(9): 2731-2741.
|
Merkens, J.-L., L. Reimann, J. Hinkel, and A. Vafeidis. 2016. Gridded population projections for the coastal zone under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global and Planetary Change 145: 57-66.
|
Motamedi, M.H.K., M. Sagafinia, A. Ebrahimi, E. Shams, and M.K. Motamedi. 2012. Major earthquakes of the past decade (2000-2010): A comparative review of various aspects of management. Trauma Monthly 17(1): 219-229.
|
Montgomery, M.R. 2008. The urban transformation of the developing world. Science 319(5864): 761-764.
|
Mulligan, G.F. 2013. Revisiting the urbanization curve. Cities 32: 113-122.
|
Munich Re. 2009. Globe of Natural Disasters, MRNATHAN DVD. Munich Reinsurance Company.
|
Nagendra, H., X. Bai, E.S. Brondizio, and S. Lwasa. 2018. The urban south and the predicament of global sustainability. Nature Sustainability 1(7): 341-349.
|
NGDC/WDS (National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service). 2018. Significant earthquake database. Boulder, CO: National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA.
|
Northam, R.M. 1979. Urban geography, 2nd edn. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
|
O’Neill, B.C., E. Kriegler, K.L. Ebi, E. Kemp-Benedict, K. Riahi, D.S. Rothman, B.J. van Ruijven, and D.P. van Vuuren et al. 2017. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 42: 169-180.
|
O’Neill, B.C., E. Kriegler, K. Riahi, K.L. Ebi, S. Hallegatte, T.R. Carter, R. Mathur, and D.P. van Vuuren. 2014. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change 122(3): 387-400.
|
Oteng-Ababio, M. 2012. Neglected vulnerabilities in a rapidly urbanizing city: Reflections on earthquake risks in Accra. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment 27(2): 187-205.
|
Pagani, M., J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, K. Johnson, V. Poggi, R. Styron, G. Weatherill, M. Simionato, et al. 2018. Global Earthquake Model (GEM) seismic hazard map (version 2018.1-December 2018). https://maps.openquake.org/map/global-seismic-hazard-map/#3/32.00/-2.00. Accessed 20 Nov 2021
|
Pagani, M., D. Monelli, G. Weatherill, L. Danciu, H. Crowley, V. Silva, P. Henshaw, and L. Butler et al. 2014. OpenQuake engine: An open hazard (and risk) software for the global earthquake model. Seismological Research Letters 85(3): 692-702.
|
Panza, G.F., and J. Bela. 2020. NDSHA: A new paradigm for reliable seismic hazard assessment. Engineering Geology 275: 105403.
|
Peduzzi, P., H. Dao, C. Herold, and F. Mouton. 2009. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: The disaster risk index. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9(4): 1149-1159.
|
Pesaresi, M., D. Ehrlich, T. Kemper, A. Siragusa, A.J. Florczyk, S. Freire, and C. Corbane. 2017. Atlas of the human planet 2017: Global exposure to natural hazards. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC106292. Accessed 20 Nov 2021.
|
Potere, D., and A. Schneider. 2007. A critical look at representations of urban areas in global maps. GeoJournal 69(1-2): 55-80.
|
Ravallion, M., and D. van de Walle. 1991. Urban-rural cost-of-living differentials in a developing economy. Journal of Urban Economics 29(1): 113-127.
|
Riahi, K., D.P. van Vuuren, E. Kriegler, J. Edmonds, B.C. O’Neill, S. Fujimori, N. Bauer, and K. Calvin et al. 2017. The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change 42: 153-168.
|
Samaddar, S., N. Okada, J. Choi, and H. Tatano. 2017. What constitutes successful participatory disaster risk management? Insights from post-earthquake reconstruction work in rural Gujarat, India. Natural Hazards 85(1): 111-138.
|
Sarris, A., C. Loupasakis, P. Soupios, V. Trigkas, and F. Vallianatos. 2010. Earthquake vulnerability and seismic risk assessment of urban areas in high seismic regions: Application to Chania City, Crete Island, Greece. Natural Hazards 54(2): 395-412.
|
Shucksmith, M., S. Cameron, T. Merridew, and F. Pichler. 2009. Urban-rural differences in quality of life across the European Union. Regional Studies 43(10): 1275-1289.
|
Spence, R. 2007. Saving lives in earthquakes: Successes and failures in seismic protection since 1960. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 5(2): 139-251.
|
Suárez, G., D. Novelo, and E. Mansilla. 2009. Performance evaluation of the seismic alert system (SAS) in Mexico City: A seismological and a social perspective. Seismological Research Letters 80(5): 707-716.
|
Takeuchi, Y., and R. Shaw. 2014. New insights of education sector from East Japan earthquake and tsunami. In Disaster recovery, ed. R. Shaw, 147-164. Tokyo: Springer.
|
Uitto, J.I., and R. Shaw. 2016. Sustainable development and disaster risk reduction: Introduction. In Sustainable development and disaster risk reduction, ed. J.I. Uitto, and R. Shaw, 1-12. Tokyo: Springer.
|
UN (United Nations). 2015. Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030. New York: United Nations.
|
UN (United Nations). 2019. World urbanization prospects: The 2018 revision. New York: United Nations Publications.
|
UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2018. 2018 statistical update: Human development indices and indicators. New York: UNDP.
|
UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees). 2014. Global strategy for settlement and shelter. http://www.unhcr.org/530f13aa9.pdf. Accessed 20 Apr 2018.
|
UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2017. GAR atlas: Unveiling global disaster risk. Geneva: UNISDR.
|
Utsu, T. 2004. Catalog of damaging earthquakes in the world (through 2002). Tokyo: Tokyo University and International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering. https://iisee.kenken.go.jp/utsu/index_eng.html. Accessed 21 Nov 2021.
|
van Vuuren, D.P., E. Kriegler, B.C. O’Neill, K.L. Ebi, K. Riahi, T.R. Carter, J. Edmonds, and S. Hallegatte et al. 2014. A new scenario framework for climate change research: Scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change 122(3): 373-386.
|
Vink, K., and K. Takeuchi. 2013. International comparison of measures taken for vulnerable people in disaster risk management laws. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 4: 63-70.
|
Ward, P.J., V. Blauhut, N. Bloemendaal, J.E. Daniell, M.C. de Ruiter, M.J. Duncan, R. Emberson, and S.F. Jenkins et al. 2020. Review article: Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20(4): 1069-1096.
|
Wyss, M. 2015. Testing the basic assumption for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment: 11 failures. Seismological Research Letters 86(5): 1405-1411.
|
Wyss, M. 2018. Rural populations suffer most in great earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters 89(6): 1991-1997.
|
York, R., E.A. Rosa, and T. Dietz. 2003. STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: Analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecological Economics 46(3): 351-365.
|