Carbon Emission Risk and Governance

Lu Jiang; Xiaokang Hu; Gangfeng Zhang; Yanqiang Chen; Honglin Zhong; Peijun Shi

doi:10.1007/s13753-022-00411-8

Volume 13 Issue 2

Jul. 2022

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2022 > 13(2): 249-260

Lu Jiang, Xiaokang Hu, Gangfeng Zhang, Yanqiang Chen, Honglin Zhong, Peijun Shi. Carbon Emission Risk and Governance[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(2): 249-260. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00411-8

Citation:

Lu Jiang, Xiaokang Hu, Gangfeng Zhang, Yanqiang Chen, Honglin Zhong, Peijun Shi. Carbon Emission Risk and Governance[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(2): 249-260. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00411-8

Citation:

PDF

Carbon Emission Risk and Governance

doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00411-8

Lu Jiang^1,2,3,4,
Xiaokang Hu^2,4,
Gangfeng Zhang^2,3,
Yanqiang Chen^2,4,
Honglin Zhong⁵,
Peijun Shi^{2,1,3,4
,
,}

1 Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, People's Government of Qinghai Province and Beijing Normal University, Xining, 810016, China;
2 State Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
3 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management and Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
4 Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China;
5 Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai, 264209, China

Funds:

for their detailed and helpful comments on the original manuscript.

This study was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (Grant No. 2019QZKK0606), the Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province (Grant No. 2022-ZJ-937Q), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42001130), the Special Project for Transformation of Scientific and Technological Achievements in Qinghai Province:Qinghai National Clean Energy Industry Highland Construction Resource Dynamic Guarantee and Ecological Environment "Trade-Off" Evaluation Technology Research and Development Project, and the Program of Introducing Talent to Universities (111 Project, Grant No. BP0820003). The authors wish to acknowledge the anonymous reviewers and editors

Available Online: 2022-07-06

Abstract

Abstract

Within the hazard and disaster risk research field, explicitly treating carbon emissions as a hazard remains rather nascent. Applying hazard and disaster risk research perspectives to seek new insights on integrated mitigation and adaptation approaches and policy measures is equally elusive. Since China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the “dual carbon” goals of carbon emission peaking and neutrality have stimulated nationwide attention, research, and policies and action plans. How to ensure that the transition pathways are on track and well-contextualized is one of the crucial challenges for policymakers and practitioners. This article examines the “risks” of missing the carbon neutrality goal at a regional scale in China, denoted as Carbon Emission Risk (CER). Carbon emissions (CE) as hazard, combined with the human socioeconomic system as exposure and human living environment, constitute the regional carbon emission environmental risk system. The “risks” of missing (or achieving) the carbon neutrality target for any region at any time, the article argues, is essentially determined by the ratio of CE to carbon absorption (CA, for uptake and removal). These variables are modified by a broadly defined “vulnerability coefficient” (Cv) that embodies both the potential for changes (decreasing CE and increasing CA), and the uncertainties of measuring CE and CA. Thus, the ratio of CE to CA is a measure of reality at any moment of time, whereas Cv indicates the overall propensity or capacity for moving the CE/CA ratio towards 1, that is, realizing carbon neutrality. Based on our calculation, CER at the provincial level in eastern China is higher than in western China. The article also calls for strengthening CER research and summarizes key measures for carbon emission risk governance.
- Carbon emission risks,
- Carbon neutrality,
- Low-carbon economy,
- Risk governance,
- Vulnerability coefficient

FullText(HTML)

References(41)

References

Choat, B., S. Jansen, T.J. Brodribb, H. Cochard, S. Delzon, R. Bhaskar, S.J. Bucci, and T.S. Field et al. 2012. Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought. Nature 491(7426):752-755.

CPCCC and SCPRC (The Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council of the People's Republic of China). 2021a. Working guidance for carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality in full and faithful implementation of the new development philosophy. http://english.www.gov.cn/policies/latestreleases/2021a10/25/content_WS61760047c6d0df57f98e3c21.html. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

CPCCC and SCPRC (The Communist Party of China Central Committee and the State Council of the People's Republic of China). 2021b. Outline of the Yellow River Basin's ecological protection and high-quality development plan. http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2021b-10/08/content_5641438.htm. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). 2022. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). https://emdat.be/database. Accessed 26 Jan 2022.

DBIS (Department for Business Innovation & Skills). 2015. The size and performance of the UK carbon economy. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/416240/bis-15-206-size-and-performance-of-uk-low-carbon-economy.pdf. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

DES (Department of Energy Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics). 2021. China energy statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press.

Dujiangyan Government. 2019. About Dujiangyan. http://www.djy.gov.cn/dyjgb_rmzfwz/c129836/english_list_details.shtml. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

Huang, J.G., Y. Bergeron, B. Denneler, F. Berninger, and J. Tardif. 2007. Response of forest trees to increased atmospheric CO₂. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 26(5-6):265-283.

Hong, S.B., G.D. Yin, S.L. Piao, R. Dybzinski, N. Cong, X.Y. Li, K. Wang, and J. Peñuelas et al. 2020. Divergent responses of soil organic carbon to afforestation. Nature Sustainability 3(9):694-700.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2018. Summary for policymakers. In Global warming of 1.5℃. An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, ed. V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, et al. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/. Accessed 5 Apr 2022.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2021. Climate change 2021:The physical science basis. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/. Accessed 5 Apr 2022.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2022. Climate change 2022:Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/. Accessed 28 Mar 2022.

Jiang, L., B. Xue, Z.X. Ma, L. Yu, B.J. Huang, and X.P. Chen. 2020. A life-cycle based co-benefits analysis of biomass pellet production in China. Renewable Energy 154:445-452.

Jiang, L., B. Xue, R. Xing, X.P. Chen, L. Song, Y.T. Wang, D. Coffman, and Z.F. Mi. 2020. Rural household energy consumption of farmers and herders in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Energy 192:Article 116649.

Le Quéré, C., R.B. Jackson, M.W. Jones, A.J.P. Smith, S. Abernethy, R.M. Andrew, A.J. De-Gol, and D.R. Willis et al. 2020. Temporary reduction in daily global CO₂ emissions during the Covid-19 forced confinement. Nature Climate Change 10(7):647-653.

Lu, F., H.F. Hu, W.J. Sun, J.J. Zhu, G.B. Liu, W.M. Zhou, Q.F. Zhang, and P.L. Shi et al. 2018. Effects of national ecological restoration projects on carbon sequestration in China from 2001 to 2010. PNAS 115(16):4039-4044.

McKinsey. 2022. The net-zero transition:What it would cost, what it could bring. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/the-net-zero-transition-what-it-would-cost-what-it-could-bring. Accessed 11 Feb 2022.

Miner, K.R., J. D'Andrilli, R. Mackelprang, A. Edwards, M.J. Malaska, M.P. Waldrop, and C.E. Miller. 2021. Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation. Nature Climate Change 11(10):809-819.

NBS (National Bureau of Statistics). 2020. National statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press.

NPC and CPPC (The National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference). 2021. China's 14th Five-Year Plan. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/special/2021lh/index.htm. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2021. Climate at a glance:Global time series. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/ann/12/1880-2020. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

Plaza, C., E. Pegoraro, R. Bracho, G. Celis, K.G. Crummer, J.A. Hutchings, C.E.H. Pries, and M. Mauritz et al. 2019. Direct observation of permafrost degradation and rapid soil carbon loss in tundra. Nature Geoscience 12(8):627-631.

QPS (Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Statistics). 2021. Qinghai statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press.

Ran, L.S., D.E. Butman, T.J. Battin, X.K. Yang, M.Y. Tian, C. Duvert, J. Hartmann, and N. Geeraert et al. 2021. Substantial decrease in CO₂ emissions from Chinese inland waters due to global change. Nature Communications 12(1):1-9.

Roobaert, A., G.G. Laruelle, P. Landschützer, N. Gruber, L. Chou, and P. Regnier. 2019. The spatiotemporal dynamics of the sources and sinks of CO₂ in the global coastal ocean. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 33(12):1693-1714.

SCP (Scripps CO₂ Program). 2021. Atmospheric CO₂ data:Ice-core merged products. https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/icecore_merged_products.html. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

SCPRC (The State Council of the People's Republic of China). 2016. Report on the work of the government (2016). http://english.www.gov.cn/premier/news/2016/03/17/content_281475309417987.htm. Accessed 9 Apr 2022.

SCPRC (The State Council of the People's Republic of China). 2021. Action plan for carbon dioxide peaking before 2030. http://english.www.gov.cn/policies/latestreleases/202110/27/content_WS6178a47ec6d0df57f98e3dfb.html. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

Shi, P.J. 1991. On the theory of disaster research and its practice. Journal of Nanjing University 11:37-42 ((in Chinese)).

Shi, P.J. 2018. Disaster risk science. Beijing and Heidelberg:Beijing Normal University Publishing Group and Springer.

Shi, P.J., X. Yang, F. Liu, M. Li, H.M. Pan, W.T. Yang, J. Fang, and S. Sun et al. 2015. Mapping multi-hazard risk of the world. In World atlas of natural disaster risk, ed. P.J. Shi, and R. Kasperson, 309-323. Heidelberg:Springer.

SPS (Shandong Provincial Bureau of Statistics). 2021. Shandong statistical yearbook. Beijing:China Statistics Press.

Teng, F., T.P. Wang, and J.W. Guo. 2021. Carbon neutrality targets and climate risk:An assessment of economic damage from climate change. http://www.3e.tsinghua.edu.cn/cn/article/130. Accessed 11 Feb 2020.

UK (The United Kingdom) Government. 2021. Summit shows a new surge in action and ambition on road to Glasgow Climate Conference. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/summit-shows-new-surge-in-action-and-ambition-on-road-to-glasgow-climate-conference. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

UN (United Nations). 2015. Transforming our world:The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/development-agenda/. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

UNISDR (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction). 2015. The Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030. Geneva:UNISDR.

WEF (World Economic Forum). 2014. Global risks 2014, 9th edn. Geneva:World Economic Forum. http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2014/. Accessed 11 Feb 2022.

WEF (World Economic Forum). 2016. Global risks 2016, 11th edn. Geneva:World Economic Forum. http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2016/. Accessed 11 Feb 2022.

Wei, Y.M., R. Han, C. Wang, B.Y. Yu, Q.M. Liang, X.C. Yuan, J.J. Chang, and Q.Y. Zhao et al. 2020. Self-preservation strategy for approaching global warming targets in the post-Paris Agreement era. Nature Communications 11(1):1-13.

World Bank. 2021. GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$). https://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?view=chart. Accessed 8 Jan 2022.

Yu, D., P. Shi, T. Zhou, R. Hao, S. Li, X. Zhao, A. Mao, and Q. Cao. 2022. Quantification of the amount and spatiotemporal differences of ecosystem service value in Qinghai Province. Beijing:Science Press.

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Proportional views