Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

Xinmeng Shan; Jun Wang; Jiahong Wen; Hengzhi Hu; Lei Wang; Jie Yin; Mengya Li

doi:10.1007/s13753-022-00421-6

Volume 13 Issue 4

Aug. 2022

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2022 > 13(4): 577-591

Xinmeng Shan, Jun Wang, Jiahong Wen, Hengzhi Hu, Lei Wang, Jie Yin, Mengya Li. Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(4): 577-591. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00421-6

Citation:

Xinmeng Shan, Jun Wang, Jiahong Wen, Hengzhi Hu, Lei Wang, Jie Yin, Mengya Li. Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(4): 577-591. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00421-6

Citation:

Xinmeng Shan, Jun Wang, Jiahong Wen, Hengzhi Hu, Lei Wang, Jie Yin, Mengya Li. Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(4): 577-591. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00421-6

PDF

Using Multidisciplinary Analysis to Develop Adaptation Options against Extreme Coastal Floods

doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00421-6

Xinmeng Shan^1,2,3,
Jun Wang^{1,2,3
,
,},
Jiahong Wen⁴,
Hengzhi Hu⁵,
Lei Wang⁶,
Jie Yin^1,2,3,
Mengya Li^1,2,3

1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China;
2. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China;
3. Key Laboratory of Spatial-Temporal Big Data Analysis and Application of Natural Resources in Megacities, Ministry of Natural Resources, Shanghai, 200241, China;
4. School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, 200234, China;
5. Department of Hospitality Management, Shanghai Business School, Shanghai, 200235, China;
6. Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70810, USA

Funds:

This research was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1508803), the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 18ZDA105), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41971199, 42171080, 42001182), and the Shanghai Science and Technology Support Program (Grant No. 19DZ1201505).

Available Online: 2022-09-09

Abstract

Abstract

Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties. Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty. This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai. Real options analysis (ROA) and dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options. The results show that: (1) Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai; (2) Among the three flood control measures, wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio, followed by dry-floodproofing, and elevation; (3) Dry-floodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period (2030–2100), and it can be replaced by wet-floodproofing in 2035–2042; the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation, but its performance will decline after 2041–2045; (4) The combined strategy of dry- and wet-floodproofing in 2044–2046 and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047–2051. The methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and feasible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.
- Adaptation options,
- Building-level measures,
- Climate change,
- Coastal floods,
- Cost-benefit analysis,
- Shanghai

FullText(HTML)

References(51)

References

Abadie, L.M., L.P. Jackson, E.S. de Murieta, S. Jevrejeva, and I. Galarraga. 2020. Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections:RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario. Ocean & Coastal Management 193:Article 105249.

Aerts, J.C.J.H., W.J.W. Botzen, K. Emanuel, N. Lin, H. de Moel, and E.O. Michel-Kerjan. 2014. Evaluating flood resilience strategies for coastal megacities. Science 344(6183):472-474.

Barnett, J., S. Graham, C. Mortreux, R. Fincher, E. Waters, and A. Hurlimann. 2014. A local coastal adaptation pathway. Nature Climate Change 4:1103-1108.

Buurman, J., and V. Babovic. 2016. Adaptation pathways and real options analysis:An approach to deep uncertainty in climate change adaptation policies. Policy and Society 35(2):137-150.

Catalao, J., D. Raju, and G. Nico. 2020. Insar maps of land subsidence and sea level scenarios to quantify the flood inundation risk in coastal cities:The case of Singapore. Remote Sensing 12(2):Article 296.

de Ruig, L.T., P.L. Barnard, W.J.W. Botzen, P. Grifman, J.F. Hart, and H. de Moel. 2019. An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities:An illustration for Los Angeles. Science of the Total Environment 678:647-659.

de Ruig, L.T., T. Haer, H. de Moel, W.J.W. Botzen, and J.C.J.H. Aerts. 2020. A micro-scale cost-benefit analysis of building-level flood risk adaptation measures in Los Angeles. Water Resources and Economics 32:Article 100147.

Du, S.Q., P. Scussolini, P.J. Ward, M. Zhang, J.H. Wen, L.Y. Wang, E. Koks, and A. Diaz-Loaiza et al. 2020. Hard or soft flood adaptation? Advantages of a hybrid strategy for Shanghai. Global Environmental Change 61:Article 102037.

Erfani, T., K. Pachos, and J.J. Harou. 2018. Real-options water supply planning:Multistage scenario trees for adaptive and flexible capacity expansion under probabilistic climate change uncertainty. Water Resources Research 54(7):5069-5087.

Garner, A.J., M.E. Mann, K.A. Emanuel, R.E. Kopp, N. Lin, R.B. Alley, B.P. Horton, and R.M. Deconto et al. 2017. Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard:Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114(45):11861-11866.

Gersonius, B., R. Ashley, A. Jeuken, A. Pathinara, and C. Zevenbergen. 2015. Accounting for uncertainty and flexibility in flood risk management:Comparing real-in-options optimisation and adaptation tipping points. Journal of Flood Risk Management 8(2):135-144.

Gersonius, B., R. Ashley, A. Pathirana, and C. Zevenbergen. 2013. Climate change uncertainty:Building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure. Climatic Change 116(2):411-423.

Ginbo, T., L. Di Corato, and R. Hoffmann. 2021. Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation:A methodological review of real-options studies. Ambio 50(1):229-241.

Ha, S., H. Tatano, N. Mori, T. Fujimi, and X. Jiang. 2021. Cost-benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan. Climatic Change 169(3):1-20.

Haasnoot, M., M.V. Aalst, J. Rozenberg, K. Dominique, J. Matthews, L.M. Bouwer, J. Kind, and N.L. Poff. 2020. Investments under non-stationarity:Economic evaluation of adaptation pathways. Climatic Change 161(3):451-463.

Haasnoot, M., J. Lawrence, and A.K. Magnan. 2021. Pathways to coastal retreat. Science 372(6548):1287-1290.

Haasnoot, M., J.H. Kwakkel, W.E. Walker, and J. Ter Maat. 2013a. Dynamic adaptive policy pathways:A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change 23(2):485-498.

Haasnoot, M., H. Middelkoop, A. Offermans, E. van Beek, and W.P.A. van Deursen. 2013b. Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115(3-4):795-819.

Hall, J.W., H. Harvey, and L.J. Manning. 2019. Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London. Climate Risk Management 24:42-58.

Hinkel, J., J.C.J.H. Aerts, S. Brown, J.A. Jiménez, D. Lincke, R.J. Nicholls, P. Scussolini, and A. Sanchez-Arcilla et al. 2018. The ability of societies to adapt to twenty-first-century sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change 8(7):570-578.

Hinkel, J., C. Jaeger, R.J. Nicholls, J. Lowe, O. Renn, and P.J. Shi. 2015. Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management. Nature Climate Change 5(3):188-190.

Hino, M., and J.W. Hall. 2017. Real options analysis of adaptation to changing flood risk:Structural and nonstructural measures. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A:Civil Engineering 3(3):Article 04017005.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2021. Climate change 2021:The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York:Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/. Accessed 26 May 2022.

Ke, Q. 2014. Flood risk analysis for metropolitan areas:A case study for Shanghai. Ph.D. thesis. Delft:Delft University of Technology.

Kim, M.J., R.J. Nicholls, J.M. Preston, and G.A.M. de Almeida. 2019. An assessment of the optimum timing of coastal flood adaptation given sea level rise using real options analysis. Journal of Flood Risk Management 12(2):Article e12494.

Kind, J.M., J.H. Baayen, and W.J.W. Botzen. 2018. Benefits and limitations of real options analysis for the practice of river flood risk management. Water Resources Research 54(4):3018-3036.

Kwadijk, J.C.J., M. Haasnoot, J.P.M. Mulder, M.M.C. Hoogvliet, A.B.M. Jeuken, R.A.A. van der Krogt, N.G.C. van Oostrom, and H.A. Schelfhout et al. 2010. Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise:A case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change 1(5):729-740.

Lin, N., R.E. Kopp, B.P. Horton, and J.P. Donnelly. 2016. Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(43):12071-12075.

Liu, H.X., Y.T. Wang, C. Zhang, A.S. Chen, and G.T. Fu. 2018. Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change. Natural Hazards 94(1):1-18.

Magnan, A.K., H.O. Pörtner, V.K.E. Duvat, M. Garschagen, V.A. Guinder, Z. Zommers, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, and J.P. Gattuso. 2021. Estimating the global risk of anthropogenic climate change. Nature Climate Change 11:879-885.

Ngo, L.M., L.T. Kieu, H.Y. Hoang, and H.B. Nguyen. 2020. Experiences of housing adapted to sea level rise and applicability for houses in the Can Gio District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Sustainability 12(9):Article 3743.

Nguyen, M.T., Z. Sebesvari, M. Souvignet, F. Bachofer, A. Braun, M. Garschagen, U. Schinkel, and L.E. Yang et al. 2021. Understanding and assessing flood risk in Vietnam:Current status, persisting gaps, and future directions. Journal of Flood Risk Management 14(2):Article e12689.

Qin, H., and M.G. Stewart. 2020. Risk-based cost-benefit analysis of climate adaptation measures for Australian contemporary houses under extreme winds. Journal of Infrastructure Preservation and Resilience 1(1):1-19.

Reed, A.J., M.E. Mann, K.A. Emanuel, N. Lin, B.P. Horton, A.C. Kemp, and J.P. Donnelly. 2015. Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(41):12610-12615.

Scussolini, P., T.V.T. Tran, E. Koks, A. Diaz-Loaiza, P.L. Ho, and R. Lasage. 2017. Adaptation to sea level rise:A multidisciplinary analysis for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Water Resources Research 53(12):10841-10857.

Shan, X.M., S.Q. Du, L.Y. Wang, W.J. Li, H.Z. Hu, and J.H. Wen. 2021. Flood risk dynamics and adaptation analyses for coastal cities based on internet big data and hydrology-hydrodynamic models. Chinese Science Bulletin 66:1-13 (in Chinese).

Shan, X.M., J.H. Wen, M. Zhang, L.Y. Wang, Q. Ke, W.J. Li, S.Q. Du, and Y. Shi et al. 2019. Scenario-based extreme flood risk of residential buildings and household properties in Shanghai. Sustainability 11(11):Article 3202.

Shan, X.M., J. Yin, and J. Wang. 2022. Risk assessment of Shanghai extreme flooding under the land use change scenario. Natural Hazards 110(2):1039-1060.

Strauss, B.H., P.M. Orton, K. Bittermann, M.K. Buchanan, D.M. Gilford, R.E. Kopp, S. Kulp, and C. Massey et al. 2021. Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change. Nature Communications 12(1):Article 2720.

Tang, J., W.J. Li, J.Y. Fang, Z.H. Zhang, S.Q. Du, Y.J. Wu, and J.H. Wen. 2021. Scenario-based economic and societal risk assessment of storm flooding in Shanghai. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 13(4-5):529-546.

Tanoue, M., R. Taguchi, H. Alifu, and Y. Hirabayashi. 2021. Residual flood damage under intensive adaptation. Nature Climate Change 11:823-826.

Van den Bergh, J.C.J.M., and W.J.W. Botzen. 2014. A lower bound to the social cost of CO₂ emissions. Nature Climate Change 4:253-258.

Ward, P.J., B. Jongman, J.C.J.H. Aerts, P.D. Bates, W.J.W. Botzen, A. Diaz Loaiza, S. Hallegatte, and J.M. Kind et al. 2017. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas. Nature Climate Change 7(9):642-646.

Ward, P.J., M.A. Marfai, F. Yulianto, D.R. Hizbaron, and J.C.J.H. Aerts. 2011. Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation:A case study for Jakarta. Natural Hazards 56(3):899-916.

Wang, C.H., Y.B. Khoo, and X.M. Wang. 2015. Adaptation benefits and costs of raising coastal buildings under storm-tide inundation in South East Queensland, Australia. Climatic Change 132(4):545-558.

Wang, J., S. Yi, M.Y. Li, L. Wang, and C.C. Song. 2018. Effects of sea level rise, land subsidence, bathymetric change and typhoon tracks on storm flooding in the coastal areas of Shanghai. Science of the Total Environment 621:228-234.

Wang, X.M., L.L. Xu, S.H. Cui, and C.H. Wang. 2020. Reflections on coastal inundation, climate change impact, and adaptation in built environment:Progresses and constraints. Advances in Climate Change Research 11(4):317-331.

Woodward, M., Z. Kapelan, and B. Gouldby. 2014. Adaptive flood risk management under climate change uncertainty using real options and optimization. Risk Analysis 34(1):75-92.

Wreford, A., R. Dittrich, and T.D. van der Pol. 2020. The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Climate Change 11(3):Article e642.

Wu, J.D., M.Q. Ye, X. Wang, and E. Koks. 2019. Building asset value mapping in support of flood risk assessments:A case study of Shanghai, China. Sustainability 11(4):Article 971.

Yin, J., S. Jonkman, N. Lin, D.P. Yu, J.C.J.H. Aerts, R. Wilby, M. Pan, and E. Wood et al. 2020. Flood risks in sinking delta cities:Time for a reevaluation?. Earth's Future 8(8):Article e2020EF001614.

Relative Articles

Supplements(0)

Cited By

Proportional views