Volume 13 Issue 5
Oct.  2022
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Ali Khansefid, Seyed Mahmoudreza Yadollahi, Gerhard Müller, Francesca Taddei. Induced Earthquake Hazard by Geothermal Power Plants: Statistical Evaluation and Probabilistic Modeling[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(5): 758-777. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00441-2
Citation: Ali Khansefid, Seyed Mahmoudreza Yadollahi, Gerhard Müller, Francesca Taddei. Induced Earthquake Hazard by Geothermal Power Plants: Statistical Evaluation and Probabilistic Modeling[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2022, 13(5): 758-777. doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00441-2

Induced Earthquake Hazard by Geothermal Power Plants: Statistical Evaluation and Probabilistic Modeling

doi: 10.1007/s13753-022-00441-2
Funds:

The authors express their sincere gratitude to the TUM Talent Factory division of the Technical University of Mü

nchen for its support by providing a TUM University Foundation Fellowship for Dr. Ali Khansefid.

  • Available Online: 2022-11-01
  • This study statistically evaluated the characteristics of induced earthquakes by geothermal power plants (GPPs) and generated a probabilistic model for simulating stochastic seismic events. Four well-known power plant zones were selected worldwide from the United States, Germany, France, and New Zealand. The operational condition information, as well as the corresponding earthquake catalogs recorded in the vicinity of GPPs, were gathered from their commencement date. The statistical properties of events were studied elaborately. By using this proposed database, a probabilistic model was developed capable of generating the number of induced seismic events per month, their magnitude, focal depth, and distance from the epicenter to the power plant, randomly. All of these parameters are simulated as a function of power plant injection rate. Generally speaking, the model, introduced in this study, is a tool for engineers and scientists interested in the seismic risk assessment of built environments prone to induced seismicity produced by GPPs operation.
  • loading
  • Allis, R.G., S.A. Currie, J.D. Leaver, and S. Sherburn. 1985. Results of injection testing at Wairakei geothermal field, New Zealand. In Proceedings of Geothermal Resource Council International Symposium on Geothermal Energy, 26 August 1985, Kailua Kona, HI, USA, 289–294.
    Bachmann, C.E., S. Wiemer, B.P. Goertz‐Allmann, and J. Woessner. 2012. Influence of pore‐pressure on the event‐size distribution of induced earthquakes. Geophysical Research Letters 39(9): Article L09302.
    Barth, A., F. Wenzel, and C. Langenbruch. 2013. Probability of earthquake occurrence and magnitude estimation in the post shut-in phase of geothermal projects. Journal of Seismology 17(1): 5–11.
    Bay of Plenty Regional Council. 2018. Kawerau geothermal system management plan. Whakatane, New Zealand: Bay of Plenty Regional Council.
    Bishop, C.M. 2007. Pattern recognition and machine learning. New York: Springer.
    Broccardo, M., A. Mignan, F. Grigoli, D. Karvounis, A.P. Rinaldi, L. Danciu, H. Hofmann, and C. Milkereit et al. 2020. Induced seismicity risk analysis of the hydraulic stimulation of a geothermal well on Geldinganes, Iceland. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20(6): 1573–1593.
    Bromley, C.J., C.F. Pearson, and D.M. Rigor Jr. 1987. Microearthquakes at the Puhagan geothermal field, Philippines—A case of induced seismicity. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 31(3–4): 293–311.
    Brown, M.R., and S. Ge. 2018. Distinguishing fluid flow path from pore pressure diffusion for induced seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 108(6): 3684–3686.
    California Department of Conservation. 2020. Geothermal production and injection data maps. https://www.conservation.ca.gov/calgem/geothermal/manual/Pages/production.aspx. Accessed 31 Aug 2020.
    Charléty, J., N. Cuenot, L. Dorbath, C. Dorbath, H. Haessler, and M. Frogneux. 2007. Large earthquakes during hydraulic stimulations at the geothermal site of Soultz-sous-Forêts. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences 44(8): 1091–1095.
    Cheng, Y., and X. Chen. 2018. Characteristics of seismicity inside and outside the Salton Sea geothermal field. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 108(4): 1877–1888.
    Convertito, V., H. Ebrahimian, O. Amoroso, F. Jalayer, R. De Matteis, and P. Capuano. 2021. Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for induced seismicity: The case of St Gallen (Switzerland), geothermal field. Energies 14(10): Article 2747.
    Convertito, V., N. Maercklin, N. Sharma, and A. Zollo. 2012. From induced seismicity to direct time-dependent seismic hazard. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 102(6): 2563–2573.
    Cuenot, N., C. Dorbath, and L. Dorbath. 2008. Analysis of the microseismicity induced by fluid injections at the EGS site of Soultz-sous-Forêts (Alsace, France): Implications for the characterization of the geothermal reservoir properties. Pure and Applied Geophysics 165: 797–828.
    Eberhart-Phillips, D., and D.H. Oppenheimer. 1984. Induced seismicity in the Geysers geothermal area, California. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 89(B2): 1191–1207.
    Edwards, B., and J. Douglas. 2014. Magnitude scaling of induced earthquakes. Geothermics 52: 132–139.
    Efron, B., and R.J. Tibshirani. 1993. An introduction to the bootstrap. New York, USA: Chapman and Hall Press.
    Ellsworth, W.L., D. Giardini, J. Townend, S. Ge, and T. Shimamoto. 2019. Triggering of the Pohang, Korea, earthquake (Mw 5.5) by enhanced geothermal system stimulation. Seismological Research Letters 90(5): 1844–1858.
    Elster, C., K. Klauenberg, M. Walzel, G. Wübbeler, P. Harris, M. Cox, C. Matthews, I. Smith, et al. 2015. A guide to Bayesian inference for regression problem. Deliverable of EMRP project NEW04 “Novel mathematical and statistical approaches to uncertainty evaluation”. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/305302065_A_Guide_to_Bayesian_Inference_for_Regression_Problems. Accessed 10 May 2022.
    Evans, K.F., A. Zappone, T. Kraft, N. Deichmann, and F. Moia. 2012. A survey of the induced seismic responses to fluid injection in geothermal and CO2 reservoirs in Europe. Geothermics 41: 30–54.
    Fridleifsson, I.B., R. Bertani, E. Huenges, J.W. Lund, A. Ragnarsson, and L. Rybach. 2008. The possible role and contribution of geothermal energy to the mitigation of climate change. In Proceedings of IPCC Scoping Meeting on Renewable Energy Sources, 20–25 January 2008, Luebeck, Germany, 59–80.
    Gelman, A., D. Rubin, D. Dunson, J.B. Carlin, and H.S. Stern. 2004. Bayesian data analysis. New York: CRC Press.
    Geological Hazard Information for New Zealand. 2020. GeoNet Quake Search website. https://quakesearch.geonet.org.nz/. Accessed 31 Aug 2020.
    Getman, D., A. Anderson, and C. Augustine. 2015. Geothermal prospector: Supporting geothermal analysis through spatial data visualization and querying tools. Geothermal Resources Council Transactions 39: 977–986.
    Grünthal, G., R. Wahlström, and D. Stromeyer. 2009. The unified catalogue of earthquakes in central, northern, and northwestern Europe (CENEC)—Updated and expanded to the last millennium. Journal of Seismology 13(4): 517–541.
    Gupta, R., and H. Shankar. 2018. Current list of geothermal power plants. Global Energy Observatory. http://globalenergyobservatory.org/list.php?db=PowerPlants&type=Geothermal. Accessed 31 Aug 2020.
    Gutenberg, B., and C.F. Richter. 1954. Seismicity of the earth and associated phenomena. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
    Hahn, G.J. 1972. Sample sizes for Monte Carlo simulation. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics SMC-2(5): 678–680.
    Halldorsson, B., S. Olafsson, J.T. Snaebjörnsson, S.U. Sigurosson, R. Rupakhety, and R. Sigbjörnsson. 2012. On the effects of induced earthquakes due to fluid injection at Hellisheidi geothermal power plant, Iceland. In Proceedings of 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (15WCEE), 24–28 September 2012, Lissabon, Portugal.
    International Seismological Centre. 2020. ISC bulletin: Event catalogue search. http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/catalogue/. Accessed 30 Aug 2020.
    Jeffreys, H. 1967. Theory of probability. International series of monographs on physics. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
    Khansefid, A. 2018. Probabilistic optimization of structures equipped with active vibration control systems under probable mainshock-aftershock sequences of the Iranian Plateau. PhD dissertation. Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran (in Persian).
    Khansefid, A. 2021. Lifetime risk-based seismic performance assessment of buildings equipped with supplemental damping and base isolation systems under probable mainshock-aftershock scenarios. Structures 34: 3647–3666.
    Khansefid, A., A. Bakhshi, and A. Ansari. 2019. Empirical predictive model for generating synthetic non-stationary stochastic accelerogram of the Iranian plateau: Including far- and near-field effects as well as mainshock and aftershock categorization. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 17(7): 3681–3708.
    Khansefid, A., S.M. Yadollahi, G. Müller, F. Taddei, and A. Kumawat. 2022a. Seismic performance assessment of a masonry building under earthquakes induced by geothermal power plants operation. Journal of Building Engineering 48: Article 103909.
    Khansefid, A., S.M. Yadollahi, G. Müller, and F. Taddei. 2022b. Ground motion models for the induced earthquakes by the geothermal power plants activity. Journal of Earthquake Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1080/13632469.2022.2084475.
    Kijko, A. 2004. Estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude, mmax. Pure and Applied Geophysics 161(8): 1655–1681.
    Kraft, T., P.M. Mai, S. Wiemer, N. Deichmann, J. Ripperger, P. Kästli, C. Bachmann, and D. Fäh et al. 2011. Enhanced geothermal systems: Mitigating risk in urban areas. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 90(32): 273–274.
    Kwiatek, G., P. Martínez-Garzón, G. Dresen, M. Bohnhoff, H. Sone, and C. Hartline. 2015. Effects of long-term fluid injection on induced seismicity parameters and maximum magnitude in northwestern part of the Geysers geothermal field. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120(10): 7085–7101.
    Langenbruch, C., and M.D. Zoback. 2016. How will induced seismicity in Oklahoma respond to decreased saltwater injection rates? Science Advances 2(11): Article 1601542.
    Langenbruch, C., W.L. Ellsworth, J.U. Woo, and D.J. Wald. 2020. Value at induced risk: Injection‐induced seismic risk from low‐probability, high‐impact events. Geophysical Research Letters 47(2): Article e2019GL085878.
    Leptokaropoulos, K., and M. Staszek. 2019. Temporal response of magnitude distribution to fluid injection rates in the Geysers geothermal field. Acta Geophysica 67(1): 327–339.
    Majer, E.L., R. Baria, M. Stark, S. Oates, J. Bommer, B. Smith, and H. Asanuma. 2007. Induced seismicity associated with enhanced geothermal systems. Geothermics 36(3): 185–222.
    Marsaglia, G., and W.W. Tsang. 2000. The Ziggurat method for generating random variables. Journal of Statistical Software 5(8): 1–7.
    Megies, T., and J. Wassermann. 2014. Microseismicity observed at a non-pressure-stimulated geothermal power plant. Geothermics 52: 36–49.
    Mignan, A., D. Landtwing, P. Kästli, B. Mena, and S. Wiemer. 2015. Induced seismicity risk analysis of the 2006 Basel, Switzerland, enhanced geothermal system project: Influence of uncertainties on risk mitigation. Geothermics 53: 133–146.
    Nicol, A., R. Carne, M. Gerstenberger, and A. Christophersen. 2011. Induced seismicity and its implications for CO2 storage risk. Energy Procedia 4: 3699–3706.
    Ogata, Y., and K. Katsura. 1993. Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues. Geophysical Journal International 113(3): 727–738.
    Pasari, S. 2019. Inverse gaussian versus lognormal distribution in earthquake forecasting: Keys and clues. Journal of Seismology 23(3): 537–559.
    Pester, S., T. Agemar, J.A. Alten, J. Kuder, K. Kuehne, A.A. Maul, and R. Schulz. 2010. GeotIS—The geothermal information system for Germany. In Proceedings of the World Geothermal Congress 2010, 25–29 April 2010, Bali, Indonesia.
    Ristau, J. 2009. Comparison of magnitude estimates for New Zealand earthquakes: Moment magnitude, local magnitude, and teleseismic body-wave magnitude. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 99(3): 1841–1852.
    Shapiro, S.A., C. Dinske, and J. Kummerow. 2007. Probability of a given‐magnitude earthquake induced by a fluid injection. Geophysical Research Letters 34(22): Article L22314.
    Shapiro, S.A., C. Dinske, C. Langenbruch, and F. Wenzel. 2010. Seismogenic index and magnitude probability of earthquakes induced during reservoir fluid stimulations. The Leading Edge 29(3): 304–309.
    Shapiro, S.A., O.S. Krüger, and C. Dinske. 2013. Probability of inducing given-magnitude earthquakes by perturbing finite volumes of rocks. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 118(7): 3557–3575.
    Staudenmaier, N., T. Tormann, B. Edwards, N. Deichmann, and S. Wiemer. 2018. Bilinearity in the Gutenberg-Richter relation based on ML for magnitudes above and below 2, from systematic magnitude assessments in Parkfield (California). Geophysical Research Letters 45(14): 6887–6897.
    United States Geological Survey. 2020. Search earthquake catalog. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/. Accessed 31 Aug 2020.
    Woessner, J., J. Hardebeck, and E. Hauksson. 2010. Theme IV—Understanding seismicity catalogs and their problems. http://www.corssa.org/export/sites/corssa/.galleries/articles-pdf/Mignan-Woessner-2012-CORSSA-Magnitude-of-completeness.pdf. Accessed 20 Apr 2022.
    Woessner, J., and S. Wiemer. 2005. Assessing the quality of earthquake catalogues: Estimating the magnitude of completeness and its uncertainty. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 95(2): 684–698.
    Zastrow, M. 2019. South Korea accepts geothermal plant probably caused destructive quake. Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-00959-4.
  • 加载中

Catalog

    通讯作者: 陈斌, bchen63@163.com
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Article Metrics

    Article views (758) PDF downloads(0) Cited by()
    Proportional views
    Related

    /

    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint
    Return
    Return