Using Extreme Value Theory to Assess the Mortality Risk of Tornado Outbreaks

Vilane Gonçalves Sales; Eric Strobl

doi:10.1007/s13753-023-00474-1

Volume 14 Issue 1

Mar. 2023

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Vilane Gonçalves Sales, Eric Strobl. Using Extreme Value Theory to Assess the Mortality Risk of Tornado Outbreaks[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(1): 14-25. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00474-1

Citation:

Vilane Gonçalves Sales, Eric Strobl. Using Extreme Value Theory to Assess the Mortality Risk of Tornado Outbreaks[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(1): 14-25. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00474-1

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Using Extreme Value Theory to Assess the Mortality Risk of Tornado Outbreaks

doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00474-1

Vilane Gonçalves Sales^{1,2,3
,
,},
Eric Strobl^1,2

1. Department of Economics, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland;
2. Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland;
3. World Trade Institute, University of Bern, 3012, Bern, Switzerland

Accepted Date: 2023-02-06
Publish Date: 2023-02-27

Abstract

Abstract

The majority of tornado fatalities occur during severe thunderstorm occurrences that produce a large number of tornadoes, termed tornado outbreaks. This study used extreme value theory to estimate the impact of tornado outbreaks on fatalities while accounting for climate and demographic factors. The findings indicate that the number of fatalities increases with the increase of tornado outbreaks. Additionally, this study undertook a counterfactual analysis to determine what would have been the probability of a tornado outbreak under various climatic and demographic scenarios. The results of the counterfactual study indicate that the likelihood of increased mortality increases as the population forecast grows. Intensified El Niño events, on the other hand, reduce the likelihood of further fatalities. La Niña events are expected to increase probability of fatalities.
- Climate change,
- Demography,
- Extreme value theory,
- Fatalities,
- Tornado outbreaks

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References(45)

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