Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanche Activity Along a Transportation Corridor in the Tianshan Mountains

Jiansheng Hao; Xueqin Zhang; Peng Cui; Lanhai Li; Yan Wang; Guotao Zhang; Chaoyue Li

doi:10.1007/s13753-023-00475-0

Volume 14 Issue 4

Sep. 2023

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Jiansheng Hao, Xueqin Zhang, Peng Cui, Lanhai Li, Yan Wang, Guotao Zhang, Chaoyue Li. Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanche Activity Along a Transportation Corridor in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(4): 510-522. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00475-0

Citation:

Jiansheng Hao, Xueqin Zhang, Peng Cui, Lanhai Li, Yan Wang, Guotao Zhang, Chaoyue Li. Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanche Activity Along a Transportation Corridor in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(4): 510-522. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00475-0

Citation:

Jiansheng Hao, Xueqin Zhang, Peng Cui, Lanhai Li, Yan Wang, Guotao Zhang, Chaoyue Li. Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanche Activity Along a Transportation Corridor in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(4): 510-522. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00475-0

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Impacts of Climate Change on Snow Avalanche Activity Along a Transportation Corridor in the Tianshan Mountains

doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00475-0

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;
2. China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences-Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan;
3. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China;
4. Ili Station for Watershed Ecosystem Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xinyuan, 835800, China

Funds:

This work was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant nos. 2019QZKK0906, 2019QZKK0903), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no. 42101080), and the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by China Association for Science and Technology (CAST)(2022QNRC001). We are also grateful for the support in field and laboratory work from the Tianshan Station for Snowcover and Avalanche Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Accepted Date: 2023-01-31
Publish Date: 2023-03-17

Abstract

Abstract

Snow avalanches can repeatedly occur along the same track under different snowpack and meteorological conditions during the snow season in areas of snow avalanche activity. The snowfall, air temperature, and snow cover can change dramatically in a warming climate, causing significant changes in the snow avalanche risk. But how the risk of snow avalanche activity during the snow season will change under a warming climate remains an open question. Based on the observed meteorological and snowpack data from 1968 to 2021 and the snow avalanche activity data during the 2011–2021 snow seasons along a transportation corridor in the central Tianshan Mountains that has a typical continental snow climate, we analyzed the temporal distribution of the snow avalanche activity and the impacts of climate change on it. The results indicate that the frequency of the snow avalanche activity is characterized by a Gaussian bimodal distribution, resulting from interactions between the snowfall, air temperature, and snowpack evolution. In addition, the active period of wet snow avalanches triggered by temperature surges and high solar radiation has gradually moved forward from the second half to the first half of March with climate warming. The frequency and size of snowfall-triggered snow avalanches showed only a slight and insignificant increase. These findings are important for rationally arranging snow avalanche relief resources to improve the risk management of snow avalanche disasters, and highlight the necessity to immediately design risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to improve our adaptation to climate change.
- Climate change,
- Continental snow climate,
- Risk management,
- Snow avalanches,
- Tianshan mountains

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References(60)

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