Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar-Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change

Yamei Li; Qiang Zou; Jiansheng Hao; Lijun Su

doi:10.1007/s13753-023-00501-1

Volume 14 Issue 4

Sep. 2023

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Article Navigation > International Journal of Disaster Risk Science > 2023 > 14(4): 586-599

Yamei Li, Qiang Zou, Jiansheng Hao, Lijun Su. Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar-Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(4): 586-599. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00501-1

Citation:

Yamei Li, Qiang Zou, Jiansheng Hao, Lijun Su. Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar-Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(4): 586-599. doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00501-1

Citation:

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Risk Assessment of Debris Flows Along the Karakoram Highway (Kashgar-Khunjerab Section) in the Context of Climate Change

doi: 10.1007/s13753-023-00501-1

Yamei Li¹,
Qiang Zou^2,3,
Jiansheng Hao⁴,
Lijun Su^{2,3,5
,
,}

1. State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources(TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China;
3. China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan;
4. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China;
5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

Funds:

This research was jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42201082), the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20030301), and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No. 2019QZKK0902). We also express our thanks to the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Meteorological Service for providing historical climate data.

Accepted Date: 2023-08-10
Publish Date: 2023-08-25

Abstract

Abstract

The Karakoram highway (KKH) is renowned for its complex natural environment and geological conditions. The climate changes drastically and directly influences the frequency and magnitude of debris flows in this region, resulting in significant casualties and economic losses. However, the risk assessment of debris flows along the KKH in the context of climate change has been rarely explored. Therefore, in this study we used the debris flow data, historical meteorological data and future climate prediction data to assess the debris flow risk of the study region during the baseline period (2009–2018), 2025s (2021–2030), 2035s (2031–2040) and 2045s (2041–2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. The results show that the risk of debris flows increases with climate change, with the highest risk level in the 2025s. Among different parts of this highway, the upper reaches of the Ghez River and the second half of Tashkorgan-Khunjerab are the sections with the highest risk. These findings are helpful for debris flow prevention and can offer coping strategies for the existing line of the KKH. They also provide some reference for the renovation, improvement, operation, and maintenance of the KKH.
- Climate change,
- Debris flows,
- Karakoram highway,
- Risk assessment

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References(65)

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